KNOWING is favored to win the weekend, but is I LOVE YOU, MAN poised for an upset?
by Steve MasonFor the last few weeks, Summit’s Knowing, starring Nicolas Cage, has appeared to be the likely winner of the upcoming box office weekend. But, my sources tell me that I Love You, Man, the new comedy starring Paul Rudd (Role Models) and Jason Segal (Forgetting Sarah Marshall) has surged in the latest pre-release industry tracking.
In the spirit of March Madness, I’m calling for the upset. I Love You, Man may not actually be a Judd Apatow movie, but it sure does look like one in trailers and commercials. The movie reportedly “rocked the house” at the South By South West Festival last week, and the buzz is very positive. I am calling for $21.5M, which would be above industry expectations.
Robert DeNiro, hilarious in MEET THE PARENTS
Writer/director John Hamburg is at the helm with the likable Rudd and Segal in tow. He previously wrote Meet the Parents (brilliant) and its sequel Meet the Fockers (a lot less brilliant). He also wrote the cult hit Zoolander, which I hated, but has a loyal core of fans.
Meanwhile, tracking suggests that Knowing will open strongly. The reviews are generally negative (21% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but Roger Ebert of the Chicago Sun-Times has published a rave, saying that “Knowing is among the best science-fiction films I’ve seen — frightening, suspenseful, intelligent and, when it needs to be, rather awesome.”
Director Alex Proyas established himself as someone to watch with the striking visuals in 1998’s Dark City, and he followed with the commercially successful Will Smith vehicle I, Robot ($144.8M domestic) in 2004. But It’s been 14 long years since Nicolas Cage won his Academy Award for Best Actor, and he’s made a lot of bad movies since then. In fact, you could argue that nobody makes more bad movies than Cage. Captain Corelli’s Mandolin, Windtalkers, The Weather Man, The Wicker Man, Next and last fall’s Bangkok Dangerous were all commercial failures and critical disasters. Still, it’s hard to argue with the success of 2007’s Ghost Rider ($115.8M in the US) or the $800M worldwide box office generated by the National Treasure franchise.
Knowing looks an awful lot like National Treasure, and with Cage on familiar turf, the picture is likely to click. Industry expectations are that it will win the weekend, but I’m, calling for a #2 finish. I expect the movie to bank a possible $20.25M by Monday.
The third new wide release is Duplicity (Universal), which is running at 59% positive on Rotten Tomatoes. Director Tony Gilroy’s last movie was Michael Clayton, a 7-time Oscar nominee, and I was a huge fan of that George Clooney legal mystery-thriller. There is certainly room in the marketplace for a smart, grown-up movie right now, but whenever you have a film with 25 Plus appeal, the reality is that the audience doesn’t always show up on opening weekend.
The last major studio film with Julia Roberts as the clear lead was 2003’s Mona Lisa Smile ($11.5M opening – $63.8M). Here, she is re-teamed with Closer co-star Clive Owen, who received an Oscar nomination for his work in that dark Mike Nichols-directed relationship drama.
Oscar winner Julia Roberts with husband Danny Moder & kids with (faces blurred)
Is she still a movie star? I say the answer is yes, but her ingénue days are over. With Duplicity, Gilroy has crafted a sort of Mr. & Mrs. Smith with corporate espionage replacing gunplay, and this is exactly the kind of movie Roberts should be making. I am targeting $14.5M for opening weekend, which will likely be enough for a #4 finish, behind Disney’s family-themed Race To Witch Mountain. The latest starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson could dip only 30% to anout $17.1M.
FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 20-22
1. I Love You, Man (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $21.5M
2. Knowing (Summit) – $20.25M
3. Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) – $17.1M
4. Duplicity (Universal) – $14.5M
5. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $9.6M
6. The Last House On the Left (Rogue) – $6.35M
7. Taken (Fox) – $5.1M
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $3.8M
9. Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $3.45M
10. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $2.35M
Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.
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27 Comments
Steve,
Love your column. Why is this going to be your last one?
the winner this weekend will be called "going outside and doing something else".
The studio screened "I Love You, Man" a ton … that bespeaks confidence in the finished product. I've seen it … it's solid funny through and through.
Steve.. your very pretty
I'll admit to being very curious about "Knowing." I loved Dark City and I like I, Robot. Plus, for reasons I can't quite fathom, I like Nick Cage.
A lot of good, fun marketing for "I Love You, Man" in our area. More than any of the other movies.
"I Love You, Man" looks good, so does "Knowing". I'll pass on the rest.
I'm a Nick Cage fan (yes, I liked Next.) I look forward to watching Knowing (probably on DVD which is where I watch most of my films).
About the only thing I hated Cage in was "Moonstruck." Other than that, his performances range from good to very good. I think he's just likeable, which is not a bad trait to have. The pre-release reviews of "Knowing" look, good, but since I've seen the trailers, I know I'll rent or steal it (I never go to movies anymore. Not in this town). The special effects look really cool. Plot, schmot, gimme the f/x.
I cannot believe that DUPLICITY is running positive reviews. Has anyone seen the trailer? The smug dialogue between Owen and Roberts sounds like so much drivel. About the only reason to get the DVD is if you need a coaster. I look forward to KNOWING, though. Nicholas Cage usually doesn't disappoint.
http://the100mostannoyingthings.blogspot.com/
He was great in the remake of The Wicker Man. Freaky movie that it was.
I Love You, Man seems a little to gay for me to actually pay $11 to see.
I Love You, Man seems a little too gay for me to actually pay $11 to see.
DID ANYONE NOTICE THAT SLASHFILM.COM USED THIS ARTICLE AND DIDN'T GIVE CREDIT TO THIS SITE OR AUTHOR???
how can u hate zoolander???
Ok, don't take this wrong, but I actually liked Moonstruck. I'm sorry.. I'm sorrry… please don't hit me.
"Steal it"? . . . surely you mean "borrow by legal means"?
I don't got to theaters anymore either. Too uncomfortable, too many people making noise, etc. I prefer my overly large tv and comfy couch.
I think "Knowing" looks like a cross between two Nick Cage movies, "National Treasure and his bomb "Next."For the sake of creativity in Hollywood, I hope this movie under performs. "Duplicity" was entertaining, but not as good as "Michael Clayton." Good script and performance through out the movie and is topical covering the shady side of business. This will be more of an adult oriented, word-of-mouth movie. And I caught a promo screening of "I Love You, Man" last week and enjoyed the 'bromance' aspect of the film. Very funny! Hope it's number one this weekend.
[...] win the box office weekend? Or will “I Love You, Man” beat the competition? Big Hollywood’s Steve Mason does the [...]
I'm sorry but "I Love You Man" looks retarded. It's yet another unfunny Apatow-style film. Since Apatow and Rogen came on the scene comedy has devolved into nothing but poorly-read pop-culture references, random bodily functions, and lame 'real life' speeches. People who think this stuff is funny embarrass me.
Oh and the word 'bromance' makes me want to stab someone. This is the result of gay culture destroying our society – metrosexuality, 'bromance', etc, etc.
Calling Dirty Harry (Nolte), Calling Dirty Harry.
Are we going to be sucker punched with Liberal propaganda if we go to see Duplicity? Need info.
Lighten up Grandpa- they're obviously goofing on that whole media-fueled "trend"; not that I'd expect an old fossil like you to get it
Wrong again, commie. I'm 25. But thanks for playing. Now go pray to Obama.
as a fellow conservative, you embarrass me even more, Coot
I saw an advanced screening last night of 'Duplicity' (I work at a movie theatre), I can tell you its a much better film then what's being advertised. 'Knowing' looks cliche and familiar.
I'd rather walk on glass than see another unfunny comedy….
[...] I wrote Friday, I think that word-of-mouth is weak for Knowing, but the movie held up pretty well over opening weekend. It is definitely helped by [...]
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