WITCH MOUNTAIN could “Rock” WATCHMEN for surprising weekend win!
by Steve MasonOne of the coolest ways to use the social networking platform Twitter is to find out what people are thinking, saying and Twittering about in real time. Here’s a small sampling of Tweets from the opening weekend of Watchmen (Warner Bros).
The Watchmen = Epic fail!
If you haven’t seen The Watchmen yet, I’d urge you to read the graphic novel first. Well, actually, I’d urge you to JUST read the GN. lol.
Watchmen.undecided,confused as superhero film with
very little superhero action.Convoluted story,but overall watchable. My opinion only
I was bored while watching Watchmen
Just got out of Watchmen…. Ouch, would spend the 9 quid on – can’t even find the humour, brain switched off 1 hour into the 3- BIG YAWN
Watchmen, three hours of my life I will never ever get back.
Watchmen was a horrible movie! We went today. My bf goes with me to chick flicks,so I go to”other”. THIS ONE WAS bbaaad! Yuk
Going to watch the watchmen so I can rip it to shreds later
Watchmen – way too much blood, way too many slaughtered people!
For everyone who says, “What’s the point of Twitter,” here’s a real-life application. I was able to watch the word-of-mouth take shape for Zack Snyder’s film adaptation of the classic Alan Moore graphic novel. When projecting box office, I use a multiple to arrive at a weekend estimate. After a $24.5M Friday, it would be fair to expect about a 2.5 multiple for about $61.25M ($24.5 X 2.5 = $61.25M). Instead, that strong Friday resulted in a much softer $55.2M, operating on a 2.25 multiple.
That means that in this new age of Twitter and Facebook and text messaging, word-of-mouth on a movie spreads like wildfire. If a film is bad or challenging or has a bad ending, potential moviegoers are going to know it before opening weekend is over. In fact, a negative reaction from Friday’s ticket buyers can mean fewer admissions on Saturday and Sunday.
As I have written before, I like this movie. Given the densely-plotted source material, Snyder has pulled off something amazing. This is the thinking man’s superhero movie, and the film cannot be enjoyed, or even tolerated, if you check your mind at the theatre door. Watchmen is about ideas. For me, it is a $120M art film that deconstructs the very idea of what a hero is. The film is cold, intellectual, uncompromising and not particularly hopeful. The Dark Knight, ultimately, is about how when everyday citizens are confronted by impossible choices, they do the right thing. In the nihilistic world of Watchmen, everything is gray, uncertain and relative. Anybody who showed up last weekend for a bucket of popcorn and some cheap CGI thrills probably left very disappointed.
Fortunately for Warner Bros (domestic distribution rights), Paramount (foreign distribution rights) and Fox (a profit participant thanks to litigation), the hardcore fans of the graphic novel seem to like the movie. Here are some Tweets from fanboys last Friday and Saturday.
Seeing watchmen again for the second time.
Watchmen, pretty damn good, really enjoyed it. Now to finish reading the graphic novel to get the details and depth of everything
experiencing the post-Watchmen glow.
I am dying to see Watchmen again, soooooooo good!
The big question in Hollywood is, “How much will Watchmen fall this weekend?” When the opening weekend 3-day is this big, even wildly successful movies like Iron Man and The Dark Knight tumble about 50%.
SAMPLING OF SECOND WEEKEND DROPS FOR 2008 BLOCKBUSTERS
Iron Man – down 48%
Hancock – down 49%
The Dark Knight – down 52%
Jumper – down 54%
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor – down 59%
Quantum of Solace – down 60%
The Incredible Hulk – down 60%
Wanted – down 61%
The Day the Earth Stood Still – down 68%
Cloverfield – down 68%
Hellboy II: The Golden Army – down 71%
My best guess is that the encore for Dr. Manhattan and pals will be in the $20M-$23M range, and, if I you pin me down to an exact prediction, I’ll go with $22.1M, which would mark a 60% decline. A 3-day take of less than $20M would be a huge disappointment.
If you happened to see this past weekend’s Saturday Night Live, you saw a tour de force from Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. His opening monologue, which turned into a Fosse-style musical number, was a piece of hilarious self-mockery, and he really got the President’s vocal cadence down for an Incredible Hulk spoof called The Rock Obama. Johnson has gone from pro wrestling superstar to versatile entertainer, and he’s also a full-fledged movie star.
In the fall of 2007, The Rock flexed his box office muscle with Disney’s The Game Plan. The family film featuring Johnson as a football star and playboy-turned-Dad, and, after a $23M opening frame, the movie went on to $90M domestic.
Now Disney is re-booting its popular Witch Mountain movies from the 1970’s – Escape to Witch Mountain in 1975 and Return from Witch Mountain in 1978 – with The Rock, Carla Gugino (Watchmen) and AnnaSophia Robb (Bridge To Terabithia). Tracking with the family crowd, including Moms 25 Plus, is very strong, and I am predicting $22.75M, possibly enough to score a surprise win over Watchmen.
Wes Craven’s R-rated remake of his 1972 classic The Last House On the Left (Universal) looks a bit stronger-than-expected. Despite no real star power, there is room in the marketplace for this kid of gruesome scarefest, and I think the movie could hit $18.2M by Monday morning, good for third place.
The other new wide release is Miss March (Fox Searchlight), a crass R-rated comedy with no star power. To me, the tracking looks very soft, and it looks like it will miss the top 5 altogether with just over $5M.
FINAL PREDICTED BOX OFFICE FOR MARCH 13-15
1. NEW – Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) – $22.75M
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $22.1M
3. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $18.2M
4. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail (Lionsgate) – $5.7M
5. Taken (Fox) – $5.23M
6. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $5.13M
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $5.07M
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $2.59M
9. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $2.08M
10. Coraline (Focus) – $2.07M
Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.
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42 Comments
Watchfriends. H/T
Ace Of Spades.
My kids are psyched up about Witch Mountain. Frankly, I hope it squashes Watchmen. Most of what I'm hearing about it generally agrees with the "twitters" above, and a lot of that is from friends who fit into a
broadly-defined "comic fanboy" demographic. Definitely not predisposed to dismiss a superhero movie without good reason.
is there any way to follow on twitter the number of people who say…..
"what a waste of time."
"what is the point?"
"why is the fox newsbunny so obsessed with this?"
"can't believe i wasted 5 minutes signing up for this."
and i am not going to go to the mat defending watchmen, but i'd rather see something like coaraline make a comeback than witch mountain win.
A Disney family film beating an R-rated 3 hour film in it's second week wouldn't be an upset, it's the safe bet. I love the hell out of "Watchmen," but it's earning-power has been overestimated from the beginning. Just because "300," "Iron Man" and "Dark Knight" were all huge, that doesn't mean every big comic property is going to be a record-breaker. "300," "Iron Man" and "TDK" were all fairly mainstream, easy to digest films (yes, even Dark Knight is a pretty straightforward actioner overall) and two of them are PG13. "Watchmen" is long as heck, complex and DEMANDS that the audience be engaged and intelligent. That it's made almost 60 Million so far is HUGE for it's pedigree, but it's being played like some kind of surprise letdown. If it drops LESS than 50% in it's second week, that'll be amazing as well.
I was in the 10-12 target age range when the first Witch Mountains came out, and I loved them. Seems weird they are remaking those, but I like The Rock, he's a decent actor and has magnetism. I'm sure the moms won't mind looking at him, either.
Got bored with Watchmen? Go back to nursery school. Watchman demands intelligence. If you go to movies that make you think, you are in the right place.
AnnaSophia Robb for the win…
I'd have to agree with Steve on reading the graphic novel first – I sat though Watchmen half bored while my friend who read the novel was enjoying it.
I did learn that you don't want to mess with Rorschach
yes, watchmen is not a "superhero movie with lots of superhero action scenes," it is a movie about characters and mystery
taxi driver is not a revenge-fueled shoot em up either, but rorschach is very much like a costumed travis bickle
"[Watchmen] is a $120M art film that deconstructs the very idea of what a hero is."
Deconstructs? Destroys is more like it.
[...] Random Feed wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptOne of the coolest ways to use the social networking platform Twitter is to find out what people are thinking, saying and Twittering about in real time. Here’s a small sampling of Tweets from the opening weekend of Watchmen (Warner Bros). The Watchmen = Epic fail! If you haven’t seen The Watchmen yet, I’d urge you to read the graphic novel first. Well, actually, I’d urge you to JUST read the GN. lol. Watchmen.undecided,confused as superhero film with very little superhero [...]
Watchman, which I will wait for on DVD, is for people who think they are more sophisticated because they buy into this whole lets deconstruct thing. If that is what floats your boat, great, go see the movie. I prefer to be entertained and not hit over the head with someones take, message, theme, etc. If good themes, messages, takes, etc.., can come from good movies either by design or accident. I prefer the accident. When done on purpose it is most usually over done and takes away from the ENTERTAINMENT. Entertainment does not mean brainless drivel, entertainment means it has to hold the audiences attention. It means when the movie is over you wish there was more and while satisfied you are still engaged. Too many times I have had to sit through a film to be educated about something or another and I find myself looking at my watch wondering how much longer will this go on.
If you liked Watchman great. I will still want to check it out, but for me DVD release will be soon enough.
60% drop is right in line with what I predicted last weekend. I based that on the reviews I was hearing for the film. There will be Watchmen fans that see it 2 or 3 times (recession?). But most people will wait for DVD, PPV, HBO, etc.
Yeah, because watching movies just to be entertained means you are a dunce. (circles index finger around temple)
To bad The Rock, while a likable actor isn't much of one.
And I said that Watchmen might not do that well overseas, and a couple of days ago, BH had a link on UK sales being dissapointing.
I think he did a decent job in Walking Tall. So okay, the man's no Olivier, but given a non-goofy role he's not terrible.
Point taken. I don't see The Rock ever getting a call from the Academy is all. I have enjoyed a few of his films though.
We're racist if we think Obama's Intergenerational Theft Act to the tune of TRILLIONs is weak-willed tripe. We're unscientific if we actually examine the science and see it supports Special Creation. We're 'Global Warming deniers' if we think that following known hockey stick fraudsters is not a good idea. And we are unintelligent if we think Watchmen is poisonous bilge.
Got it.
Lefties don't like conservatives. But I already knew that. Now I'll just toddle along to nursery school.
Ouch.
Win to LoneWolfArcher.
Dwayne is finding his place. He's unafraid to try. Kissing Steve Carell in "Get Smart" is proof of that. Ewwwwww……
No, he's not Olivier, but that's okay, he's not supposed to be. He could use some summer stock work to get better, but he has leaped away from beefcake roles; no mean feat. I liked the Scorpion King, and I like his newer work even better.
Ditto that.
I like him. I think that is very important. I also think he has made the right choices for him. He is doing mass entertainment. People want to see him improve. I also think that he has good comedic chops. If he does not take himself too seriously he should have a good career.
Watchman did fine for what it set out to do – ie put the source material on screen. Snyder's directing was pretty much spot on. Some of it WAS gratuitous – some of the violence, the blue dong, etc. But this wasn't a superhero movie and a superhero movie is what non-fans of the graphic novel were looking for.
I do think Snyder made a HUGE mistake changing the graphic novels ending – I saw the movie with a friend who had never read the book and could not really understand the point of of what Ozzy was trying to do. The graphic novel's ending, basically give the world an unknown enemy to hate and unite against, simply made more sense in the grand scheme of things. I've heard different reasons for not including the squid but for me, the squid was one of the most powerful parts of the book.
If it had been up to me, I would have HBO'd the graphic novel -12 episodes, plenty of time to really develop the characters.
*So far, he's scandal free, too*
I recall hearing he and his wife of 15 years (give or take) are/were getting divorced. Scandal to follow ?
That said, I really like Dwayne's charisma – Arnold was never an academy award acting either but he made bank.
When I met my ex-wife, she was getting her master's degree in Russiam Lit; and she dragged me off one evening to watch "The Battleship Potempkin". Funny how that event kept running through my mind as "Watchmen" played.
There would be nothing "surprising" at a Witch Mountain win this weekend. A short, family friendly movie will always do better head-to-head with a longer, R rated one. Doesn't mean Watchmen sucks, just that family friendly movies that are shorter (and can play more times per day) always make more dough.
ahem. i think you'll find Bush and Paulson kicked off this 700B bailout. it's a problem that's been dumped on obama just as he arrived in office – you cannot lay this at his feet no matter how you try. btw, this kind of revisionism is why no-one is liking conservatives. instead of thinking logically you think ideologically. try switching brain back onto manual instead of automatic.
unless you want to get your ass kicked
His best line was while in jail "You think you are keeping me in here but I am keeping you in here" (or words to that effect)
Well it certainly doesn't help Watchman that one of the screenwriters is begging people to please go see it/go see it again. I've seen more bad reviews of it than good. Not my cuppa tea so I'll pass.
http://scifiwire.com/2009/03/watchmen-writer-begs...
As far as Dwayne Johnson, I love the guy and pretty much everything I've seen him in. Although I'm leery of a Witch Mountain remake (although this is less a remake and more of a sequel kind of thing), I'd definitely go see him in it if I could. The trailers look pretty good, and I can't wait to see what Tia and Tony look like now as adults.
BTW, yes, he and his wife split up awhile back. However, they are still business partners and work together pretty closely, so I think your hopes of a scandal are pretty slim there, Matt.
The deconstruction of "Watchmen" is precisely what sinks it. Except for Rorschach, all the characters are a bore, and Rorschach appears to succeed despite himself. I'm sure we were meant to disapprove of him.
Here's the thing. Deconstruction is as old as the hills. It's what "Don Quixote" was all about. Somehow, though, that story still succeeded in exciting its audience. Why? Because it kept up the illusion that the knight-errant formula is worthwhile. We come to realize that all knights-errant, not just Quixote himself, must have been a little crazy. Then again, the windmills MIGHT be giants. You never know. The central point of the book is that imagination is fun.
(Continued…)
Not so Watchmen. It sucks out all possible enjoyment. The sex and violence, staples of low art (like comic books) that Moore/Snyder notably leave intact, range from the disturbing to the comical. What do we get in exchange? The "intelligent" message that heroes are nuts and we'd never want them around in real life. Well, duh. "The Dark Night" very clearly makes that point. So did Tim Burton's "Batman," for that matter.
Since those films were also fun to watch, I guess they can't be high art. 'Cause everyone knows that Beethoven's Ninth Symphony, "Hamlet," and the Sistine Chapel were "cold, intellectual, uncompromising and not particularly hopeful."
Obama voted for the $700 billion bail-out. And although the problem was dumped on him, he did not have to push more of the same solution that Bush did. I am free to criticize both, and to do so I need not engage in any revisionism.
I can't buy the whole "art house hero deconstruction" premise. Of course there are dark and evil people in this world I don't need a comic book to tell me that. There are people that live good lives, and don't have skeletons in their closet. The world does have it's darkness but it also has it's light. The latter is missing it seems.
Actually, imo, Be Cool was his best flick. Takes a real man and actor to go against the grain.
- "The graphic novel's ending, basically give the world an unknown enemy to hate and unite against, simply made more sense in the grand scheme of things. I've heard different reasons for not including the squid but for me, the squid was one of the most powerful parts of the book."
I thought the squid was ridiculous. Alien invasion made more sense in the grand scheme of things? Why? I don't recall being prepared by the story to accept invaders from another world anymore than I'd accept it if I heard it on Coast to Coast tonight. Really, it came out of nowhere. I'll bet if they had left it in, the theater audience would have snickered.
In my opinion, there is no advantage to the enemy being unkown over taking something that is known and turning it into an enemy. However outlandish and improbable is Dr. Manhattan, at least his backstory pulls him a bit closer to the mundane. Plus, that guy truly is scary. If anyone ever stumbled into superpowers like he did, instead of using him as a weapon, I'd advise the government to neutralize him immediately.
The first Witch Mountains were really good, I thought, and I get the idea they're dated during the Scooby-doo Era of Reason… which was followed by the Scooby-doo Era of Un-reason where all of a sudden Science no longer held sway over Superstition and all the ghosts and witches and curses were real instead of being plots by bad guys in funny suits to take advantage of people's fears. And the Witch Mountain remakes were the same… IIRC, and granted, I watched them when I was much older, but… ick, some New Agey mystical crap.
I hope my memories of the original aren't too messed up and I think it would be really great if the new movie goes with science and aliens.
Please..
Not hoping for a scandal. However, I generally find that divorce in Hollywood makes being "business partners" difficult.
So far, he's scandal free, too. He's a big tough guy, not afraid to bust some heads, but he's got common sense and a sense of humor. It's rare to see musclebound guys who can laugh at themselves. As long as he doesn't get a reality show, he won't hurt for work.
I left Watchmen after about 45 minutes. I was not bored by the movie, that's why I stayed for so long. My problem was that I did not care about the characters, not any of them. I did not like them and did not find them interesting. 45 minutes is about my limit to at least find a character interesting. Beyond that, the characters were not only dull but they behaved vilely. I hated all of them. And the storyline was taking a very long time to get somewhere so I just moved on. But I knew from the first time I saw the trailer that this was going to be a movie that looked very silly while taking itself very seriously. I'm not saying the movie was bad, just that it's not something anyone ever needs to see.
movie bob is absolutely correct. Box office obsession is not always a perfect barometer or indicator that a film worked both artistically and hit it's target audience. 'Watchmen' seems to have done that fairly well, and it should succeed enormously in it's target demographic. 'Witch Mountain' (I have to admit the trailer looks like a low rent CGI opus)
has much broader appeal, and could conceivably make more money in it's initial release. Two years from now when you are counting every penny I suspect 'Watchmen' will have the bigger bottom line…
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