WATCHMEN with $25.2M opening day, but “ticking downward,” now targeting $57M 3-day & $145M domestic!
by Steve Mason“Who is watching the Watchmen?” Just about everyone…or so it seems.
The brand new film adaptation of the classic graphic comic Watchmen is a hit of monstrous proportions on its opening weekend, but not everyone loves it. In fact, not only is there a prominent character named Rohrschach (played by Oscar nominee Jackie Earle Haley), the film itself is serving as a Rohrschach Test for critics, fanboys and the broader public.
The Zack Snyder-directed $120M epic started with $4.5M in Thursday midnight business which is outstanding. There was no way for Watchmen to approach the $18.5M midnight start for lat summer’s The Dark Knight. First off, it is March and not the middle of summer blockbuster season. Kids have school. People are working. These are not the lazy days of July when it is easier for many to see a movie at midnight on Thursday, and hit the office late on Friday. The other factor is the movie’s rating. This is an R-rated movie, not PG-13 like The Dark Knight.
Jackie Earle Haley, who played Kelly Leak in the original Bad News Bears, is wearing the Rorschach mask in Watchmen
The Thursday night start for Watchmen was 44% better than the $2.5M midnight shows for director Snyder’s last epic 300 (also rated R). It was also virtually double the $2.3M midnight start for November’s Quantum of Solace (PG-13). Those are much better comparables than The Dark Knight or say last year’s PG-13 rated Twilight, which grabbed a reported $7M midnight preview gross.
Watchmen was spectacular at the box office Friday, and, after consulting with multiple sources, I am projecting a staggering $25.2M (that does include midnight previews) for Friday. That is approximately the 32nd-best opening day in modern box office history, but it is the all-time #12 opening day for a non-sequel.
ALL-TIME TOP 15 OPENING DAYS FOR A NON-SEQUEL
1. Spider-Man – $39.4M
2. Twilight – $35.9M
3. Iron Man – $35.2M
4. Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone – $32.3M
5. The Simpsons Movie – $30.7M
6. I Am Legend – $30M
7. The Da Vinci Code – $28.6M
8. 300 - $28.1M
9. Transformers – $27.8M
10. Sex & The City – $26.7M
11. The Passion of the Christ – $26.5M
12. Watchmen – $25.2M (projected)
13. Planet of the Apes – $24.6M
14. Hulk – $24.2M
15. The Day After Tomorrow – $23.5M
When the numbers get this big, and the movie is this front-loaded, 3-day projections are problematic, and I am revising downward from the $62.5M I published Friday night (my final prediction on published Wednesday was $63M). It’s looking more like $57M as of Saturday morning. Running time is killing this movie. If the number holds, it would still give Watchmen the all-time #5 opening weekend for an R-rated movie, trailing only Matrix Reloaded, Passion of the Christ (which had better source material contrary to what fanboys may believe), Snyder’s 300 and Hannibal.
Still the all-time biggest opening for an R-rated movie
ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR AN R-RATED MOVIE
1. The Matrix Reloaded – $91.7M
2. The Passion of the Christ – $83.8M
3. 300 – $70.8M
4. Hannibal – $58M
5. Watchmen – $57M (projected)
6. Sex & The City – $57M
7. 8 Mile – $51.2M
8. Wanted – $50.9M
9. The Matrix Revolutions – $48.5M
10. Troy – $46.8M
One interesting facet of this movie is the fact that three different major studios have a piece of the action. Warner Bros owns domestic distribution rights, Paramount has the foreign and Fox, which won a very public battle over the rights to the movie, is getting 5%-8.5% of gross participation that will be set by the film’s worldwide revenue success. That puts an awful lot of powerful Hollywood types on the same team, working to ensure Warchmen’s success.
Critics are divided about Watchmen as a movie. The movie has a 65% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but the most established critics – what Rotten Tomatoes classifies as the Cream of the Crop – has generated a lower 43% positive reviews. Here’s a sampling from writers that I know and like.
Joe Morgenstern of the Wall Street Journal –
“The reverence is inert, the violence noxious, the mythology murky, the tone grandiose, the texture glutinous. It’s an alternate version of The Incredibles minus the delight.”
Pete Hammond, Hollywood.com -
“A stunning, mind-bending, breathtaking densely-packed motion picture experience.”
David Poland, Movie City News -
“The problem with Watchmen is, in the end, that it is a bit of a big stiff bore for two acts with an improved, but mostly uninspired third act. Look at Watchmen from the back to the front. Do you care about what has happened to any of these characters, except Rorschach, by the time you leave the theater?”
Roger Ebert, Chicago Sun-Times -
“After the revelation of The Dark Knight here is Watchmen, another bold exercise in the liberation of the superhero movie. It’s a compelling visceral film.”
Watchmen author Alan Moore
Obviously, the reviews are all over the board. Although, there’s no question that the writer of the original Watchmen graphic novel, the enigmatic Alan Moore, hates the movie, it’s just as certain that he has not and will never see it. In fact, he put a curse on the whole project.
Watchmen director Zack Snyder
Director Zack Snyder signed on for a gig that proved too tough and too problematic for the likes of brilliant filmmakers like Terry Gilliam (The Fisher King, Twelve Monkeys), Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler, The Fountain) and Paul Greengrass (United 93, The Bourne Ultimatum). Perhaps Alan Moore is right. His book is “inherently unfilmable.” There’s no way to pack the dense details of the brilliant 1986 landmark into a movie – even when it’s 2 hours, 43 minutes long.
I am a huge fan of the graphic novel having read it in college. I deliberately didn’t re-read Watchmen in advance of the movie because I think it needs to be judged as its own individual piece of work. Snyder’s problem all along has been, “How do you make a movie that both satisfies hardcore fans and is accessible enough for people who have never even heard of Watchmen?”
For the time being, the spectacle, the buzz, the fanboy fervor and a pitch-perfect marketing campaign have set the stage for an historic 3-day opening. Once the mainstream audience discovers that Watchmen is more about ideas than it is about heroes with capes, it will be interesting to see how it holds up. For comparison’s sake, 300 fell 53% from its opening weekend of $70.8M, but the drop-off will almost certainly be bigger here.
300 ended up at $210.6M domestic and $456M worldwide, but Watchmen is likely to fall short of those numbers. In fact, whereas 300 finished with a 2.97 multiple (2.97 X $70.8M = total domestic box), Watchmen is more likely to be in the 2.4-2.6 range. That would translate to a, still impressive, final US gross of $137M-$148M. Given that spring break is coming for high schoolers and college kids, I think the movie can reach the upper end of that range.
EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $25.2M, $6,979 PTA, $25.2M cume
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $2.5M, $1,162 PTA, $70.2M cume
3. Taken (Fox) – $2.3M, $763 PTA, $112.9M cume
4. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $2.05M, $709 PTA, $120.56M cume
5. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $1.3M, $532 PTA, $81.92M cume
6. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $1.1M, $430 PTA, $130.5M cume
7. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $1M, $437 PTA, $36.2M cume
8. Fired Up (Sony) – $920,000, $512 PTA, $11.68M cume
9. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) – $850,000, $666 PTA, $14.85M cume
10. Coraline (Focus) – $800,000, $408 PTA, $63.1M cume
EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $57M, $15,785 PTA, $57M cume
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $9M, $4,184 PTA, $76.7M cume
3. Taken (Fox) – $7.75M, $2,570 PTA, $118.04M cume
4. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $7.58M, $2,625 PTA, $126.1M cume
5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $4.5M, $1,759 PTA, $133.5M cume
6. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $4.05M, $1,659 PTA, $84.68M cume
7. Coraline (Focus) – $3.5M, $1,787 PTA, $66M cume
8. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) – $3.1M, $2,380 PTA, $17M cume
9. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) – $3M, $1,310 PTA, $38.5M cume
10. Fired Up (Sony) – $2.75M, $1,520 PTA, $13.5M cume
Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.
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26 Comments
I guess I'm just getting cantankerous in my old age. I just don't understand what people find funny about Tyler Perry's Madea schtick. Then again I didn't get the joke about Eddie Murphy playing a ginormously fat woman either in Norbit. *scratches head*
I didn't get it when Martin Lawrence did it either.
Martin Lawrence did one, too? I have a pathological aversion to him so I have no idea what hey may have done.
Madea will be back in theaters September 11 2009 in tyler's new film so it looks like Tyler and Lionsgate will have one hell of a 2009. * boxoffice Hits in 4 years. Dam Tyler, your fanbase loves you
A bit of anecdotal evidence: Me and a pal are planning to see Watchmen tomorrow afternoon. It will be the first movie I went to a theater to see, as opposed to waiting for the DVD, since Star Wars, Episode III: Revenge of the Sith.
"Big Mamma's House"
[...] worden. Bij IMDB hebben ze bijvoorbeeld een Top 250 Worst Movies en ikhttp://www.levenslangleren.beWATCHMEN with $25.2M opening day & a possible $62.5M 3-day, likely the all-time 4th-best sta…“Who is watching the Watchmen ?” Just about everyone…or so it seems. The brand new film [...]
Murphy also played Pro. Klump's mother and grandmother in the Nutty Professor remake.
And let's not forget Robin Williams played Mrs. Doubtfire in the movie of the same name.
On top of that, Perry has a cameo role in the Star Trek prequel. Read more in the article (some spoilers):
http://www.blackfilm.com/20080307/features/startr...
"America Must Pull out of NAFTA and WTO to SURVIVE"
I worked as an Industrial Engineer for 30 years for Rockwell International.
That is exactly what I did my whole life. I worked for 30 years evaluates labor cost for Rockwell International.
So trust me, I know when someone is getting screwed when it comes to labor cost.
This has been coming on since the very minute America joined NAFTA and the WTO. America has been losing money and jobs to the whole world. Every year and it has grown to a humongous amount in the last few years.
I have always said, things will just keep getting worse then at some point America will go into a total Collapse.
If you think you have money or a good job and will not be affected. I have news for you. Everyone will feel much pain before this is completely over.
Just imagine the Federal Government not having enough money to pay the Social security pensioners or their Medical Benefits or anything else. This is exactly where America is heading, so bucket your seat belt because we are in for a very, very bumpy ride.
My older bother who serviced in the Army in Europe during World War II, He said in Germany the money was so worthless that they had to take a wheel barrel full of money to the store to purchase a loaf of bread.
America is in a cross roads either we Pull Out of NAFTA and the WTO and solve our jobs problem or America will just keep going down, down till America goes into a total collapse.
What the President and Congress are doing is total insanity. This will be the third or forth bailout by congress and he promises us there will be more bailouts to follow.
What you are seeing right now is the planned destruction of America by President Obama and all his elite globalist cabinet members in order to usher in the “ONE WORLD ORDER”. Then we can kiss all of our freedoms good-bye.
Please tell me. Is there no end in sight?
America doesn’t need another bailout. America needs all those jobs that the Politicians have been sending off shore to Mexico, India and China for the last 15 years.
Then the American workers can pay their house payments and feed their family and things will start to improve over night.
This is a NO BRAINIER.
Pull out of NAFTA and the WTO. The International Trade Balances for year 2006.
YOU FIGURE IT OUT: The Hell with borrowing Trillions of Dollars from China.
If America just stopped EXPORTING anything in 2006 we would have lost $1,440 Billion Dollars in Jobs.
If America just stopped IMPORTING anything in 2006 we would have gained $2,200 Billion Dollars in Jobs.
That would be a Net Total Increase of $ 760 Billion Dollars of new Jobs created every year in America.
That would be a net decease in the National Debt every year.
But, all these Politicians are all Globalist and will not give up until America is totally destroyed. This is very, very sad because all is needed is USA PULL out of NAFTA and the WTO and watch the jobs increase. In facts this will create more jobs in America than we can fill.
They would rather Spent Billions of Dollars on trying to under write their Globalist Policies and keep borrowing money from China.
You want creating NEW JOBS in AMERICA?
“STOP Obama and his Globalist buddies from SENDING AMERICAN JOBS Off Shore TO CHINA”.
The American Politicians just don’t get it yet, but the next election we’ll get them.
They can print and throw all the money at this problem they want. Things will get a little better for a while and then we will slide back again into a recess or maybe a depression. Then we will need another bailout.
This guy–this guy really liked Watchmen!
why would anyone who cares about their soul see this film?
I don't think its fair or accurate to lump Mrs. Doubtfire in with the others. He wasn't playing her as a baffoon and it was clear throughout the movie that he was a man in a woman costume. These other guys spent entire movies as women, playing up to every ugly stereotype there is.
thought i was amazing.
i loved the graphic novel and the movie.
i cant wait to go again.
Good point–Mrs. Doubtfire was more of a "Charlie's Aunt" approach
Are you going to post this everywhere? Don't you have some books you need to burn?
Lost in Space gave my soul a rash, but a good topical cleared that right up.
True story:
Many years ago, I had a really bad flu bug. I was sick for days and didn't leave the couch. My friend rented "Lost in Space" for us to watch.
When it was over, I turned to my friend and said "watching that movie actually made me feel worse."
i think misturd was responsible for the rash
I don't doubt your story for a moment. What a horrid movie!
Because they care about their minds
I didn't see The Watchmen. but I saw The Bad News Bears. It was pretty funny.
Just thought I'd put that out there.
I just watched the movie this afternoon, I really loved it but I am still confused about my feelings for it. At times I laughed (not always when other people did), at other times I was shocked and at times I cheered.
So I'm going to have to watch it again. Depending on how that went, I may even see it another time.
I've only been to the cinema once sing I saw Return Of The King, I don't go to the movies much, but this movie made me get off my but.
Minds? We're talking about Watchmen here, aren't we? As to souls, there are always those who are happy to sell their soul for a bowl of leftover from the Seventies Wheaties. The Pals of Pinnochio are again on their way to the Island. And worse, some of them know exactly what they do, and choose it with both eyes open.
Khassie,
Define stereotype
[...] de críticas díspares sobre o filme, da lupa que a indústria tem colocado sobre o desempenho de Watchmen nas bilheterias e de relatos [...]
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