Final Oscar Predix: SLUMDOG, Rourke, Streep, Ledger, Cruz; BEN BUTTON could win just 2 of 13!
by Steve MasonI am forecasting a coronation for Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) at Sunday’s Academy Awards. My final predictions call for Slumdog wins in 8 of the 9 categories it is competing in including Best Picture and Best Director: Danny Boyle. The only place I think it will fail is in the Sound Mixing category where The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) may trump it.
Slumdog Millionaire is about to win the Hollywood's Grand Prize
The “Battle Royale” of the night is Mickey Rouke from The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) vs. Sean Penn in Milk (Focus) in the Best Actor category. There have been two ties in major categories in Academy Award history. The first was in 1932 when Frederic March in Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde shared Best Actor with Wallace Beery for The Champ. (March had one more vote, but in that era, any finish within 3 votes was rules a tie.) Then in 1968, Katherine Hepburn for The Lion In Winter and Barbara Streisand for Funny Girl tied for Best Actress. If there was any justice, Rourke and Penn would share the award. In any other year, either of them would be a lock. Forced to make a pick, I’m going with Rourke.
Does Streep's upset of Winslet at the SAG Awards set the stage for Meryl's third Oscar win?
Kate Winslet is on the cover of Time Magazine, and she has picked up a wheelbarrow full of hardware during this awards cycle, but a fair number of voters got their fill of Kate when she pulled off the double-win at the Golden Globes. My upset special is Meryl Streep for Doubt (Miramax). This is her 15th career nomination, and she has not won an Academy Award in 25 years (Sophie’s Choice in 1982). That is too long for the most-revered actress in history to go without getting one of those golden guys. Streep won the SAG Award for Lead Actress, and I think she has a real shot here. (It would be a huge upset.)
Finally if my predix hold up, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) would win only 2 Oscars – Best Visual Effects and Best Makeup – despite 13 nominations. That would be the fewest wins for any movie with 13 or more nominations. In fact, 2 wins would be among the poorest showings ever for a movie with 11 nominations or more.
Tied for the biggest shutout in Oscar history; Benjamin Button could win for Makeup and Visual Effects
FEWEST OSCAR WINS FOR MOVIES WITH 11 NOMINATIONS OR MORE
1. The Color Purple – 0 wins (11 nominations)
2. The Turning Point – 0 wins (11 nominations)
3. Chinatown – 1 win (11 nominations)
4. Johnny Belinda – 1 win (12 nominations)
5. Becket – 1 win (12 nominations)
6. Mr. Smith Goes to Washington – 1 win (11 nominations)
7. Pride of the Yankees – 1 win (11 nominations)
8. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 2 wins (13 nominations) – predicted
9. Rebecca – 2 wins (11 nominations)
10. Sergeant York – 2 wins (11 nominations)
11. A Passage To India – 2 wins (11 nominations)
12. Judgement at Nuremberg – 2 wins (11 nominations)
After weeks of obsessive study, relentless debate and intense soul-searching, here are my final Oscar predictions for all 24 categories.
BEST PICTURE
My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Milk
BEST ACTOR
My Pick – Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Consensus Pick – Sean Penn, Milk or Rourke
Dark Horse – None
BEST ACTRESS
My Pick – Meryl Streep, Doubt
Consensus Pick – Kate Winslet, The Reader
Dark Horse – Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
My Pick – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Consensus Pick – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dark Horse – None
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My Pick – Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Consensus Pick – Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Dark Horse – Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
BEST DIRECTOR
My Pick – Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk screenwriter Justin Lance Black
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
My Pick – Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Consensus Pick – Andrew Stanton, WALL-E
Dark Horse – Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
My Pick – Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – David Hare, The Reader
BEST EDITING
My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Frost/Nixon
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
My Pick – Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
BEST ART DIRECTION
My Pick – The Dark Knight
Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Horse – The Duchess
BEST SOUND MIXING
My Pick – The Dark Knight
Consensus Pick – The Dark Knight
Dark Horse – Slumdog Millionaire
BEST SOUND EDITING
My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – The Dark Knight
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
My Pick – The Duchess
Consensus Pick – The Duchess
Dark Horse – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
My Pick – A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – A. R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
My Pick – Waltz with Bashir
Consensus Pick – Waltz with Bashir
Dark Horse – The Class
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
My Pick – Man on Wire
Consensus Pick – Man On Wire
Dark Horse – Trouble the Water
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
My Pick – WALL-E
Consensus Pick – WALL-E
Dark Horse – Kung Fu Panda
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
My Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Horse – The Dark Knight
BEST MAKEUP
My Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dark Horse – The Dark Knight
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
My Pick – Jaiho from Slumdog Millionaire
Consensus Pick – Jaiho from Slumdog Millionaire
Dark Horse – Peter Gabriel, Down to Earth from WALL-E
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
My Pick – Toyland (Spielzeugland)
Consensus Pick – Auf der Strecke
Dark Horse – The Pig
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
My Pick – Presto
Consensus Pick – La Maison en Petits Cubes
Dark Horse – This Way Up
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
My Pick – The Conscience of Nhem En
Consensus Pick – The Witness
Dark Horse – The Final Inch
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36 Comments
Steve, I think the following films and performances will win:
Picture/Director/Adapted Screenplay/Editing/Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke (However I think we will see a tie)
Best Actress: Kate Winslet (Winslet is perceived as more "overdue" than Streep. Plus Winslet is attached to a Best Picture nominee and pulls off a challenging role. Jolie is the real dark horse here. Her role is very loud and she plays a real-life figure. Oscar loves that.)
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz (Watch out for Amy Adams. She just might pull it off. She has the most screen time of all the nominees and scored both a SAG and BAFTA nod)
Best Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black (This is where the Academy will reward the "gay-themed" film. I don't think most people are predicting Wall-E)
Best Animated Feature/Best Song: Wall-E
Best Art Direction/Cinematography/Make-Up/Visual Effects: Ben Button. (The Academy will reward the film for being a technical achievement)
Best Costume Design: The Duchess.
Best Sound and Sound Editing: TDK
Best Doc: Man on Wire.
Best Foreign Language Film: The Baader Meinkolf Complex
A couple of more predictions:
1) Most people would prefer a root canal to watching the Oscars.
2) Anyone who survives the first hour of the Oscars will require vodka shots to dull the pain.
http://the100mostannoyingthings.blogspot.com/
Since I haven't seen any of the films and don't intend to, the only reason to watch the Oscars would be to see Hugh Jackman perform, and even he probably isn't worth listening to the political propaganda and laud and magnifying of Barack's holy name
I predict the least watched Oscars in history.
http://the100mostannoyingthings.blogspot.com/
I still don't get what's so special about The Dark Knight's art direction.
[...] Hollywood with some Oscar predictions here. Big Hollywood with what’s hot on Oscar weekend … “Madea Goes To Jail,” and [...]
I'll watch report on "The Dish" t.v. show. Don't care about the lefties!
Michael Moore provoked a similarly mixed reception in 2003 when he used his acceptance speech for "Bowling for Columbine" to challenge President Bush for leading the nation into "a fictitious war."
I used to watch the Oscars every year and look forward to it. I used to make a strong effort to see as many of the nominated films as possible. I went to film school on account of my love of the medium and the work of the generation of film school guys whose politics were not mine, but whose work was great and electrifying. The Oscars used to celebrate movies and the passion was about their creation.
This year, I will tune in for the first few minutes to see Hugh Jackman's take on hosting. He or someone else will quickly say something stupid and I will tune out. Tomorrow I will read who won. It is the same every year. If I am ever going to anticipate the Academy Awards again, it will be in a year when it is about movies. It wouldn't hurt to nominate something that was (gasp) popular.
Gregg Kilday opines in the Hollywood Reporter that the reason the Oscar ratings continue to tank is that there is not enough controversy during the broadcast. He cites Michael Moore's fictitious outrage as an example of what the Oscars need more of. While I think there is always room for another streaker or a return visit from Soy Bomb, Moore's silly rant was the point at which I personally wrote off the Oscars.
This year, though, those sorts of passions don't appear to be on tap. So far, most everyone has been on best behavior, exactly what the Oscars don't need.
Now the passion is about the opinions and politics of performers. During an awards show for film making I don't want to know what they think about anything but the construction of films. More rude, crass, pontificating, exactly what the Oscars don't need.
I can't wait to hear how liberal celebrities will find a way to bash Bush even though he is no longer in office. I am also wondering what the reaction would be if someone decided to bash Obama (I know that won't happen). They would make headlines, though…
Here's proof positive Hollywood has lost touch. The only thing Brad Pitt has going for him is his looks. So what do the geniuses do? They make him look old and ugly. Go figure?
What are you going to do if neither of those things happen?
If Slumdog ends up winning seven or eight Oscars, how will you guys react? Frankly, it's not a particularly political film, so the "Hollywood gives Oscars to America-hating films" meme won't really apply there.
I refuse to watch the televised results of a student council election.
They won't bash Bush, they will bash Sarah Palin.
Actually, I think the almost-certain winning of Slumdog Millionaire is the biggest proof of Anti-Americanism out there. You see there is nothing remotely American about it( neither the case, the crew, the story, nor the cultural value). It will be interpreted rightly as the eclipse of American hegemony and the arrival of new soft powers. Anti-Americanism is not only saying that America is bad or wrong, it is more fundamentally about pretending it does not exist. Using American institutions to affect erasure of America, what could be more anti-American than that?
You're kidding, right? Is this a joke? So, now every film MUST be about America? The fact that a film that is incredibly apolitical about anything, let alone America, is still anti-American?
So, I take it you pointedly refuse to watch any film not made in America by Americans, etc.?
Wouldn't surprise me to see Melissa Leo sneak off with Best Actress. REAL movie blogs, as opposed to grievance blogs like this one, have noted a surge in support the last two weeks for Leo.
Again, what will you bitch about if they don't?
Winslet has been awfully eager, I agree, which is odd because she's never acted like this in previous award cycles. Hell, she should have won for Heavenly Creatures (still Peter Jackson's best film , IMHO)
Interesting post. In poor Geraldine Page's defense, she did drop dead a year or so after her win. (I know she's not on your list)
Helen Hunt at least had the sense to acknowledge during her Oscar speech that Dench was the more deserving nominee.
Hilarious, coming from someone who comes here solely to bitch about everything that's written.
BTW, are you the same Pete who thinks Bill Clinton ran for president in 2000?
I don't suppose that it would hinder my daily priorities.
Thanks for the predictions Steve … WAY better than actually watching the love fest itself.
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Would a win to Slumdog Millionaire be the biggest triumph of "small budget but compelling story over Hollywood behemoth with crap-story despite mega-budget" since David Puttman's 'Chariots of Fire' took out Best Picture (and writing and music) in 1981?
I usually watch at least a little, but this year I'm not really interested in any of the movies, plus the sea of white ribbons would make me ill. Too bad, because I do like Hugh and would like to see him dance. But there's "Oliver Twist" to watch over on PBS. (For whoever's interested, I discussed the "Oliver Twist" article that was on this site over at my personal blog. Follow the link in my name.)
I firmly believe that the Coen sweep last year was a BIG TIME makeup for Fargo.
Certainly NOT Burn After Reading. What an unholy mess.
Miller's Crossing, however, has greatly improved over time.
Absolutely. I feel great for Danny Boyle, he deserves this.
[...] Need people who actually know who was nominated, and give a damn? Go to Big Hollywood. [...]
Oh look, all the conservative pedophile-enablers ranting about liberal Hollywood… shock, shock! You people are pathetic. Seriously, you take the time to bash the Oscars and all of Hollywood in general for having a political opinion other than your own and yet you ignore more important things like the fact that millions have been slaughtered under your precious Baby Bush or that he eliminated freedoms and civil liberties essentially spitting on the constitution that you claim to hold so dear. Talk about not having priorities or a conscious for that matter. Shame on you!!!
God forbid we have an actual human in the White House after 8 years of slimy reptilian excrement masquerading as a one. You rightists are a bunch of scumbags… hypocritical, intolerant, hate filled pedophiles!
Bush should be bashed into perpetuity. How many untold millions are dead because of him? How many trillions of taxpayer dollars did he spend to fight his internationally illegal war? How many freedoms and civil liberties has he erased? He's spit on the constitution and raped this country while bullying the world. Everyone hates Americans and it is solely his fault. He should be impeached retroactively for his crimes. Rightists still to this day bash Clinton for a private, family matter and he's been out of Office for nearly a decade. Some of you idiot GOP boot licking retards still stand behind moron Bush. Hypocrite!!!
prose, you must be related to Ann Coulter as this is without a doubt the most ridiculous, self-righteous, GOP-skewed nonsense I have seen outside of her poorly written books. It seems to me that you are thinly veiling your racist mentality with really low-brow, idiotic rhetoric. You should really educate yourself on what is a real threat to America… because anyone with a brain would see that Baby Bush's assault on our freedoms and civil liberties is a far more relevant matter than a movie. I bet you haven't even seen Slumdog.
Prose has one of the most flawed mentalities I have had the misfortune to ever come across. All of these flawed, patently ignorant viewpoints have been from conservatives. That speaks for itself.
Hmmmm…. And I'll bet that you think Lincoln was sooooo great.
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