Oscar odds: SLUMDOG, Rourke, Winslet, Cruz are favorites, but Penn, Streep and Tomei are live underdogs!
by Steve MasonOn Sunday, the Academy Awards will be handed out at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood, and there are some clear favorites. Slumdog Millionaire, the feel-good Danny Boyle Mumbai opus made for just $14M, is a heavy favorite to win Best Picture. It’s hard to imagine Slumdog missing out on Hollywood’s biggest prize, having won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA Award and just about everything in between.
But, in the world of gambling, you always want to look for value. What are the films and performances with longer odds that would be worth a wager on Sunday? My purpose here is to establish a betting line for each of the six major categories, and then find the value bet in each category.
Question: Who will win Best Picture? Answer: Still, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
BEST PICTURE
Slumdog Millionaire – 1/7
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 6/1
Milk – 20/1
Frost/Nixon – 30/1
The Reader – 50/1
VALUE: I believe that in order to win an Academy Award, passion is required. Slumdog Millionaire has a passionate zeal among its supporters that will make it virtually unbeatable. Although I have made The Curious Case of Benjamin Button the second choice here, I give it very little chance of winning. It has major studio backing (Paramount), and it is certainly well-respected, but it is more admired than loved. So, for me the betting value is in Milk. Aside from Slumdog, it is the movie with the largest bloc of zealous fans. Gay and gay-friendly Academy members love the movie, and in the shadow of the passage of Proposition 8 in California, Milk is worth a $2 bet at the window.
Sean Penn's portrayal of Harvey Milk is now a decided underdog to Mickey Rourke
BEST ACTOR
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler – 1/2
Sean Penn, Milk – 3/2
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon – 10/1
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 25/1
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor – 35/1
VALUE: After colorful, rambling, verging on obscene acceptance speeches at both the Golden Globes and the BAFTA Awards, Mickey Rourke is the true favorite for Best Actor. Rourke has also campaigned hard, paying the paying the price for that Golden Globe win by schmoozing each and every one of those 95 Hollywood Foreign Press members. Penn just doesn’t play that awards campaign game at all, but actors love him. The only real betting value here is Penn, who still has a chance of winning his second Oscar.
It has been 25 years since Mery Streep won an Oscar
BEST ACTRESS
Kate Winslet, The Reader – 1/2
Meryl Streep, Doubt – 5/2
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married – 4/1
Angelina Jolie, Changeling – 25/1
Melissa Leo, Frozen River – 35/1
VALUE: It is Kate Winslet’s year. Just ask anybody. She has two outstanding awards-caliber performances in The Reader and Revolutionary Road. If rules would have allowed, she might have been nominated twice in the Best Actress category. She’s 0-fer-5 lifetime at the Academy Awards and deserves to win, but she can be beaten. Jolie and Leo have no shot. Hathaway is the 3rd choice in the field, and a win is not inconceivable, but Streep is the value bet. The undisputed greatest living actress has not won an Oscar in 25 years, despite the fact that this is her eleventh nomination since winning for Sophie’s Choice in 1983.
Ledger is a lock
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heather Ledger, The Dark Knight – 1/100
Josh Brolin, Milk – 20/1
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder – 25/1
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt – 30/1
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road – 50/1
VALUE: None. There is no value in this category. Heath Ledger will win Best Supporting Actor posthumously. If you are unfamiliar with how odds work, 1/100 means that you would have to bet $100 to win just $1, and even then, it would be tough to get anybody to take your wager.
Marisa Tomei's "stripper with a heart of gold" in THE WRESTLER may earn her a second Oscar
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona – 1/2
Viola Davis, Doubt – 3/1
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler – 5/1
Amy Adams, Doubt – 12/1
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 15/1
VALUE: This is, by far, the most competitive of the major awards. The longest shot in the field, Taraji P. Henson from Ben Button, is only a 15-1 longshot. Woody Allen has a knack for helping actresses win in this category (ask Dianne Wiest , who scored for both Hannah and Her Sisters and Bullets Over Broadway). That points to a win for Penelope Cruz, who was raw and sexy as Maria Elena in Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Davis can certainly win for her fleeting-but-powerful turn in Doubt, but my value bet is Marisa Tomei. Her first win, for My Cousin Vinny, was viewed by many as a fluke. In fact, there is an urban legend that she really didn’t win. The story goes that Jack Palance, who presented that year, read the wrong name (the legend claims that Vanessa Redgrave was the actual winner for Howard’s End). In reality, there is no doubt that Tomei is an Oscar winning actress, who gives her career-best performance in The Wrestler.
The uncompromising David Fincher
BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire – 1/7
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 6/1
Gus Van Sant, Milk – 20/1
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon – 25/1
Stephen Daldry, The Reader – 35/1
VALUE: Nobody is going to beat Danny Boyle, but if I was looking for a strong value bet, I would wager on Fincher. He is a visionary with some amazing movies on his resume, including Se7en, Fight Club and Zodiac. He has worked with countless actors and industry types, and his uncompromising nature makes him tough to like, but easy to respect. If there were an upset in this category, Fincher is the only guy who could pull it off.
Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.
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95 Comments
I'm surprised that Rourke has moved to the first position. It's one thing to work the Globes, anyone can do that. But it's another to get to the Academy voters. But it looks like he did. William HIll, famed Brit bookie who's always right, has him at 4/5. Penn at 11/8.
The winners according to these odds look correct. The only upset I see is maybe Streep. Penn is a long-shot. I don't see how on earth Tomei (and I love her) could win.
I'm pulling for Mickey Rourke, just because I always love an underdog story. Most of the other movies I'll probably rent when I can rent them for $1 or less with the exception of anything from Sean Penn. I wouldn't waste my time. I did see Heath Ledger in Batman and I'm probably the only person on the planet to say this but that movie was over-hyped. My expectations for it were high and I didn't really care for it.
http://the100mostannoyingthings.blogspot.com/
I. Couldn't. Care. Less. About the Oscars, nor about uppity, know-nothing actors and actresses, nor anything they may have to say that's not worth listening to anyway.
Another liberal mindless gathering. Read book vice watching.
Tell me, Incredible. If you don't care about anything "uppity" actors or actresses have to say, then why are you spending time on a site whining about actors and actresses?
Speaking of which, can you name a single actor in the Slumdog Millionaire cast?
Because the site has a ton to offer besides these worthless posts about the oscars. I echo Mr. Incredible and WillyBrown, I could care less. Big Hollywood would be much better off ignoring this tripe all together. Let it die from disinterest.
But Dr. Manhattan, did you really think you had made some clever point there? Based on your posts elsewhere on this site, you seem like you could care less about individual freedoms and our Constitution as it was written, and yet you spend an awful lot of time at a site that talks about them. Why is that?
Tell me, Chazmartel, what “individual freedom” do you feel that I “could care less” about?
We already know who's going to win. Whichever movie the studio execs have decided is going to win. Has anyone ever asked the question "Why does the Acedamy Award limit the nominees? Why not make any movie released that year eligible?" Because thats not the purpose of the Acadamy Awards. The purpose is to generate cultural fodder for the masses, and if the masses are watching whatever they want (God forbid?!) how would SNL know what to satarize?
Did you feel the same way the year Braveheart won Best Picture?
==If you don't care about anything "uppity" actors or actresses have to say, then why are you spending time on a site whining about actors and actresses?==
So that I can get the message out, via at least this one channel, to those uppity actors and actresses that I am just one of oodles of people who don't give a dang about their views, that, for the most part, what they gotta say is ignorant and annoying, Every time we hear one of those Holywood dummies open their mouths, they say something stupid and/or unAmerican. Cher, lately, is one-a them. Tom Cruise — with that ever-present, stupid grin — is another goofball.
==…can you name a single actor in the Slumdog Millionaire cast? ==
No, and I don't care about it, and I would gladly go face-to-face with any actor/actress/other so-called "entertainer" and tell them that they aren't any more relevant to anything than I am, that they have no crystal ball that I don't have and that they should just shut up and act, or try to muster up some trace, some semblance of talent to "entertain."
Huh? Any movie released in a calendar year in a US theater as long as it plays one week in LA and NY is eligible for Oscar consideration as long as it hadn't played on TV or cable. That means next year, Paul Blart AND Peter Jackson's Lovely Bones will be equally eligible for Best Picture.
As for your paranoid conspiracy about the awards being rigged, do you honestly think that the studio execs all got together a few months ago and said "man, we should rig the Oscars so a movie in Hindi without a single known Hollywood actor wins all the awards". Of course, I've got a crisp 10 dollar bill that says that next Monday, the vast majority of you will be categorizing Slumdog Millionaire as a "liberal agenda" film, even though most of you will not have actually seen it.
I am absolutely certain that the Academy Awards are rigged. Its not a conspiracy theory. Question: How can a movie win Best Picture yet not have the director of that movie win Best Director? Its stupid. What then does a director do? Yet this happens all the time. Why? 'Cause the more movies that can win an award, the more chance people will see them. Hollywood has every right to rig the wards–the purpose of of the show is to serve as a 3 (sometimes 4) hour commercial for the movies in general. Nothing wrong with that. The only thing stupid is for me to believe that its real. There are people who control culture in this country just like there are people who control oil or control banking or control telecommunications or control the Republican party. Again, no problem–you just have to keep your eyes open and see the world for what it is. Finally, to the person who asked about Braveheart. What does that have to do w/ anything?
????
Uppity? Who uses that word anymore? How old are you anyway?
It's interesting that while you say that "entertainers" aren't any more relevant to anything than you are, you still assert that in fact, they are less entitled to their opinions than you.
By the way, the whole point about Slumdog Millionaire is that while you're bashing all actors and all movies, you haven't actually seen the movie that will probably win 7-8 Oscars on Sunday. The whole concept of having an informed opinion is, well, being INFORMED. Lazy people like yourself seem to rely on knee-jerk emotionalism and bias almost as much as the people you condemn for purportedly doing the same thing.
My point is that if this was 1995 right now and Braveheart was winning Best Picture, you wouldn't be complaining about the Awards being rigged. Or, do I have it wrong and you didn't see or like Braveheart?
And, as far as the director nods not matching the picture nods, yeah, I wondered the same thing, when I was 13 years old. Oddly enough, this is the rare year where they actually do match. It also happened most recently for movie year 2005, which makes it even odder that it's happened again so soon.
Every branch of the Academy nominates in their category and they everyone gets to have a say in Best Picture. The director's branch are going to have an opinion who the five best directors are for the year. What are the chances that all the other branches are going to agree. There have been many instances where the directors chose Robert Altman or Woody Allen as one of their nominees, but the resty of the academy did not go along in the Best Picture category.
I had a very frustrating time discussing "The Reader" on a thread where it was pretty obvious that the only person who watched it was the reviewer, yet others felt compelled and entitled to have an opinion on it.
==Uppity?==
Yes.
== Who uses that word anymore?==
I don't care. It gets the message across.
== How old are you anyway? ==
Who wants-ta know?
==It's interesting that while you say that "entertainers" aren't any more relevant to anything than you are, you still assert that in fact, they are less entitled to their opinions than you. ==
Where did I say — "assert," as YOU say — that they are not as entitled as I am?
==By the way, the whole point about Slumdog Millionaire is that while you're bashing all actors and all movies, you haven't actually seen the movie that will probably win 7-8 Oscars on Sunday.==
Irrelevant. I'm not basing what I say on their performances on the screen, rather their performances off screen. It's patheitic, for the most part.
== The whole concept of having an informed opinion is, well, being INFORMED.==
Translation: "You don't know as much as I do and, therefore, you can't have an opinion unles it agrees with mine."
== Lazy people like yourself seem to rely on knee-jerk emotionalism and bias almost as much as the people you condemn for purportedly doing the same thing. ==
See, everybody? That's the kind of crap PR we expect outta Follywood: Stubborn, ignorant defense of and adherence to the shallow line.
Mr Incredible
"So that I can get the message out, via at least this one channel, to those uppity actors and actresses that I am just one of oodles of people who don't give a dang about their views,."
I'll take you at your word, but if your being honest then you're in a rather huge minority among 'conservatives' (most certainly including most of this forum) who claim they "don't care" what Hollywood stars have to say. Most of the time, that's completely untrue – not only do they care, they care to a RIDICULOUS degree. Let ANY Hollywood actor show even the hint that they're for the Iraq war or own a gun, and 'conservatives' are falling over eachother to elect him/her the new John Wayne. And when they DON'T agree with y'all, it's an even BIGGER rush. Margaret Cho hasn't been relevant in a decade even in her own comfortable niche. But anything she has to say about The Right gets MASSIVE coverage here, elsewhere on the rightie blogosphere, on talk radio, etc.
Continued:
Jealous that those in pop-culture power don't support THEIR causes, wrecked with self-pity that THEIR movement doesn't have a similar surplus of champions, The 'conservative' media is among the most celebrity-obsessed facets of the culture. And, given how HUGE the intersection between the modern Republican voter-base and TMZ/Access/People Magazines' worthless audience of lowest common-denominator pablum-gobblers is, who can blame them? The Republican Party used to be defined by individualistic capitalists, or rugged frontiersmen. Now? Defined by overfed bumpkin oxygen-hogs and their teeming litters of future wastes-of-space (the ever-lovely results of the 'Pro-Life' movement, after all) cowering within their hovels in fear that those eeeeevil homosexuals might be marryin' right outside their door, reclining in front of "eXtra" fretting about 'what's gone wrong with Britney??'
Continued:
Oh, and the reason the Director and Picture noms so often split is in the way the voting is structured. Most people don't realize it, but the way the Oscars generally work (unless it's changed recently) is that each award BUT picture is principally voted on by peers (actors for actors, writers for writers, etc. then EVERYONE for picture.) As there are more ACTORS in Hollywood and thus The Academy than any other group, "actors films' always figure more prominently in the BP race while the preferred films of Directors aren't as-often reflected. This is why Stephen Daldry, who makes 'actors films' to the exclusion of all else, is so often nominated (for BP) for films that are often widely seen as lacking in all but the acting department. This is ALSO why the acting nods so often "sync up" with the BP nods moreso than the director or writer nods.
MovieBob –
FYI: Mr. Incredible is someone who believes that, currently, as we speak, "gay marriage is legal in this country because (and I quote) a gay man can marry a gay woman." This is out of his mouth. This is who you're dealing with.
You seem to think you know a lot about me Vince. Anyway, my point is that its ridiculous to believe that these "judges" or whatever they call themselves aren't talking to each other all the time about their choices (this isn't exactly a national security issue). They're getting together, discussing the merits (in their minds) of each movie and perhaps trying to determine as an industry what message they're going to convey for the coming year. And of course how to make the most profit while spreading that message. Again, I have no problem with it. Exxon Mobil (which is only one of several oil companies) made 4x the amount of profit in 2008 as all the major media corporations combined. So I certainly don't blame America's problems (morally or otherwise) on Hollywood. But again, lets not kid ourselves here. Anyway, since I'm a heterosexual male over 40, I've spent about as much time as I can in a single day talking about pop culture.
==…if your [sic] being honest then you're in a rather huge minority among 'conservatives' (most certainly including most of this forum) who claim they "don't care" what Hollywood stars have to say. Most of the time, that's completely untrue – not only do they care, they care to a RIDICULOUS degree. ==
When we say that we don't care what they say, we mean, not that what they say just goes in one ear and out the other — althrough that's true — rather that the vast majority of Hollywood's self-proclaimed "stars" don't have anything to say worth listening to. They are just so shallow, and we expect, again for the most part, them to be against guns and Iraq, for example, and in favor of runnin' a tea and cookie party for terrorists.
==Let ANY Hollywood actor show even the hint that they're for the Iraq war or own a gun, and 'conservatives' are falling over eachother to elect him/her the new John Wayne. ==
Their perspective is rare in Follywood.
So, you loved "Braveheart" then?
==MovieBob –
FYI: Mr. Incredible is someone who believes that, currently, as we speak [sic], "gay marriage is legal in this country because (and I quote) a gay man can marry a gay woman." ==
That's cuz it's true that this is what "gay marriage" is today.
By the way, where you write, "currently, as we speak," you coulda added, "right now," and, "at the present time," so that we could all be sure that you mean "now." As you wrote it, we just cannot be sure.
If I have to be sloppily redundant or permanently ignorant, I'll choose the former now, currently, as we speak and always. Thanks!
==If I have to be sloppily redundant or permanently ignorant, I'll choose the former …==
However, sloppy redundancy displays ignorance.
==Mr. Incredible is someone who believes that, currently, as we speak [sic], "gay marriage is legal in this country because (and I quote) a gay man can marry a gay woman." ==
So, it is NOT true that a man who claims to be homosexual may marry a woman who claims to be homosexual? It IS true. THAT's so-called, "gay marriage."
MovieBob,
I think this is a fairly rare year where all five Best Pictures line up exactly with Best Director. Usually, there's one "Lone Director" bone thrown to people like David Lynch, Robert Altman, or Paul Greengrass.
Of course, Slumdog is an utter anomoly when it comes to having no acting nominations.
Could the Oscars be any less relevant?
I'm curious. Do the trolls go to a website and get their assignments? Kinda like which bridge to hide under? Just when I get used to one troll, a new one pops up. Interesting troll fact. They all have the same talking points.
For posters frustrated with their posts getting "et" up. I just lost one in the black hole of BH. I think I've figured out what happens. The post appears in yellow, fades to white, and if you hit "refresh" at that moment. GULP. It's gone.
Anybody else notice that?
I don't know, but it sounds plausible to me.
==Could the Oscars be any less relevant?==
I don't see how.
Well, apparently, as they appear to generate debate, they must hold a certain degree of relevancy. So, could they be less relevant? Yes, they can. They'll reach complete irrelevancy once everyone stops talking about them. That's how!
Remember, Vince, this is the website that insisted that Dark Knight was denied a Best Picture nomination because apparently Batman is an allegory for George Bush.
Talking about it doesn't give them relevancy.
If they are relevant — and they aren't — they are relevant ONLY to the participants who are stuck on themselves and those who are so shallow.
That doesn't entirely surprise me. One would think that the people who run this site would get tired of the endless "gee, weren't movies great in 1951" threads. No matter how many times you point out that the so-called "Golden Age" had just as many shitty movies and just as much behind the scenes hedonism, the posters' utterly insular, echo-chamber view of art and the totality of existence in general keeps them from viewing the past any other way than hopelessly nostalgic.
I still keep the Oscars on in the background. While I'd rather shoot myself than watch the red carpet stuff (and most actors seem to hate that part anyway), I still enjoy the technical awards. I've always been more interested in that aspect of filmmaking and I always try to catch categories like art direction, cinematography, original score, and visual effects (go ILM!).
==While I'd rather shoot myself than watch the red carpet stuff (and most actors seem to hate that part anyway), I still enjoy the technical awards. I've always been more interested in that aspect of filmmaking and I always try to catch categories like art direction, cinematography, original score, and visual effects (go ILM!). ==
Fair enough.
Thanks, Mr. Incredible.
While I certainly understand your criticisms, there are still thousands of talented artists and craftsmen who work in this industry behind the scenes. Having worked as a production assistant and extra (two jobs on the bottom of the totem pole), I can tell you that many of those people are good, hard-working folks whose political opinions run from left to right and back again (probably more to the left but you don't see them doing PSAs about global warming either).
Hollywood is more than the people you see on TV. And (apologies for going on a slight tangent), I blame the entertainment media more than most actors. I'd love nothing more than to see TMZ, Perez Hilton, Extra, ad nauseam vanish off the face of the earth.
==Thanks, Mr. Incredible.
While I certainly understand your criticisms, there are still thousands of talented artists and craftsmen who work in this industry behind the scenes.==
There's no doubt about that. I don't criticize those of hard work behind the scenes. They're trying to do a job they like, and do it well. They study hard about what they do so that they can do the job better.
== Having worked as a production assistant and extra (two jobs on the bottom of the totem pole), I can tell you that many of those people are good, hard-working folks whose political opinions run from left to right and back again (probably more to the left but you don't see them doing PSAs about global warming either).==
My problem is with the "talent." They strut around with this attitude of self-importance, as though they have some sort of inside understanding that we don't have out here. They think they are royalty. They are not.
Years ago, while getting my flight ratings and certificates, I worked in airport, pre-board security, and, many times, I saw celebrities come through. I didn't bow down to them. I did not approach them on bended knee. I didn't call them, "Your Honor." Nor, "Your Majesty." I treated them and talked to them and with them just like any normal person.
==Hollywood is more than the people you see on TV. And (apologies for going on a slight tangent), I blame the entertainment media more than most actors. I'd love nothing more than to see TMZ, Perez Hilton, Extra, ad nauseam vanish off the face of the earth. ==
I hate those shows, too. However, in so many cases, they confirm my observations. To be honest, though, a few of them seem decent.
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