FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: Besson & Morel set to score with TAKEN which could top $20M; PAUL BLART: MALL COP set to pass $80M domestic while THE UNINVITED seems headed for $12.5M; Zellweger’s NEW IN TOWN may open softly!
by Steve MasonIn 2006, Magnolia released the French sci-fi action thriller District B13, written and produced by Luc Besson and directed by his longtime collaborator Pierre Morel. The US domestic engagements grossed an estimated $1.2M, but previously, the movie delivered a solid $6.9M in France as Banlieue 13 in 2004.
The movie features some truly unique action sequences, and failed to connect with American audiences because it is a classic “tweener” – too arty for mainstream theatres while being too action-driven for the arthouse crowd. (Put this one in your Netflix cue.) District B13 is the kind of movie that makes you say, “What are those guys going to do next?”
Actor David Belle in District B13
The answer is Taken (Fox), debuting in wide release on Friday. Co-written by Besson and directed by Morel, the movie stars Oscar nominee Liam Neeson (Kinsey, Batman Begins) as a retired spy who tries to save his kidnapped daughter. The movie is scoring both with critics (58% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and with movie-goers (nice numbers in pre-release industry tracking). Taken will likely win this Super Bowl 3-day with a possible $21M.
Kevin James’ Segway seems pretty unstoppable, and the former King of Queens star is one-man publicity machine. James is making the rounds here in Tampa, pushing Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) with all of the assembled TV and radio stations. (I am covering the Super Bowl for 710 ESPN Radio in Los Angeles.) Made for just $26M, this Adam Sandler produced comedy seems headed for a possible second-place finish with $13.2M and a new domestic cume of about $82M. The world better start getting ready for Paul Blart: The Sequel.
The Uninvited (Dreamworks/Paramount) is the latest in the first quarter horror logjam, following The Unborn ($39.6M cume), My Bloody Valentine 3-D ($39M cume) and Underworld: Rise of the Lycans ($23.4M cume) and preceding Warner Bros’ Friday the 13th (February 13). A remake of the 2003 South Korean supernatural thriller (released in the US as A Tale of Two Sisters), The Uninvited should have a respectable opening. As usual, tracking is tough to interpret when it comes to the horror genre, but this one could reach $12.5M.
Clint Eastwood will likely spend another weekend in the top five with Gran Torino (Warner Bros). The movie is now his all-time biggest grossing title topping his previous-best In the Line of Fire, and it may drop a mere 36% from last weekend to $10.4M. Meanwhile the aforementioned Underworld: Rise of the Lycans, the Kate Beckinsale-less Underworld prequel, will suffer a steeper drop. The vampires vs. werewolves origins story may drop about 50% to $10.35M or so.
The other wide release is the terribly-reviewed Renee Zellweger romantic comedy New in Town (Lionsgate). As of Wednesday night, the movie is at just 11% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, and the most entertaining description is from Slant Magazine’s Nick Schrager who says it’s “like the odious stepchild of Fargo.” Counter-programming the Super Bowl with a female driven rom-com seems like a good idea, but $6.5M seems to be the ceiling for this one.
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF JANUARY 30
1. NEW – Taken (Fox) – $21M
2. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $13.2M
3. NEW – The Uninvited (Paramount) – $12.5M
4. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $10.4M
5. Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (Sony) – $10.35M
6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $9.5M
7. Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $8.5M
8. NEW – New in Town (Lionsgate) – $6.5M
9. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $5.9M
10. My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) – $5.7M
11. Bride Wars (Fox) – $4.25M
12. Inkheart (Warner Bros) – $4.2M
Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.
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24 Comments
I’m really pulling for “Taken” to win the weekend- it’s a straight up excellent action film; In my opinion, it blows “Quantum of Solace” out of the water.
Yeah, I have a feeling we’re getting a horror overload as well, which is the main reason why I don’t think “The Uninvited” might do great business- the past 3 weeks have had horror movies open to $19 million or more, and they all had their little ways of standing out (“Unborn” was the first big horror movie since Saw V nearly 3 months earlier, “Valentine” was in 3D and “Underworld” had the brand name). “The Uninvited” doesn’t have much to stand out (‘cept ‘purty’ Elizabeth Banks), and it’ll be long forgotten by the time Jason Voorhees arrives on the 13th.
This will surprise people, but I really liked The Uninvited. Maybe it’s just me. We’ll see.
Gosh, but Taken just looks like a retread of Ransom to me, even though I do like Besson. Neeson just looks so…droopy these days.
So, is Taken any good? The trailer they’ve been showing constantly on hulu doesn’t appeal. I don’t mind the father (Neeson) looking old and tired. I care that he seems to want to give lame speeches.
I’ve seen Taken 3 times now.
Allow me to comment on those who are wondering if they should see it.
The trailers are somewhat deceptive.
How good is this film?
If you like action…….SEE IT.
It is, first and foremost, an action film.
The chief set transitions involve putting Liam Neeson in 4 distinct situations where………I kid you not……..the fight choreographer has him pulling off moves that would have an early Steven Seagal going…..”Wow, that was COOL.”
These aren’t brief actions sequences either; some last for more than 3 or 4 minutes. A finale on a yacht off the coast of Paris lasts almost 5 minutes of nothing but bone crushing elbows, wicked knife slices, firing machine guns and throat punching martial arts.
Nothing looks fake; I myself have studied plenty of different H2H systems and have seen many movies where some actor like Kneau Reeves tries to make like a Jet Li wannabe and the results look unconvincing.
Not here. Whoever worked with Neeson teaching him these moves earned every penny of their money.
It’s like watching very early Seagal in his Above the Law days; blink and you’ll miss it.
Taken is just OK. The actress who plays his daughter is absolutely horrible and makes entire scenes painful to watch. Some of the writing (and delivery) is very weak, but is made up for through ass-kickery somewhat. I’d give it 6 out of 10 and recommend making it a rental. If you like this movie, check out Redbelt.
Gina…the man just knows his stuff. The movie is really about him, where he has been, what he has done. Daughter is just a catalyst to drive him back. They gave nothing away.
[...] Big Hollywood » Blog Archive » FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: Besson … [...]
don’t under estimate new in town… i know i know… you wouldn’t think it would do well but they are selling this thing to stupid mid america christians… these are the ones that swarmed to a kirk cameron movie and made it 30 million total. if they got to the christians then it could do very well.
underworld will fall more like the 3rd Resident Evil did = 60+% = 7.5 ish second weekend. Taken will not have the mass appeal to get 20+. This will not be this years Vantage Point. More likely Untraceable numbers or the Sentinel. 12 ish.
Paul Blartt # 1 again in a weak weekend.
CMK
I definitely excited to see Taken, but I think that estimate is wack. Other than that Miley Cyrus movie and some horror flicks, nothing has ever opened big Super Bowl weekend. Looks like Paul Blart for 3 in a row.
I was the line producer on the American portion of “Taken” which ws shot here in Los Angeles. This script was a very fast read. I finished it in 35 minutes. It really moves. Pierre Morel did a great job of working with Liam. And Liam was a complete gentleman, even with extensive stunt and prep work that he had to do for the fight scenes. I only wish other Hollywood actors had Liam’s consideration, humility and professionalism.
Two things I loved about Taken.
1) Just killing the effing bad guys with no moral equivocating (none of that “I don’t want to be as bad as them” bovine scat we see in most hollywood movies and no stupid scene where good guy shows restraint until bad guy forces good guy to kill him.
Best line in the movie:
Badguy:”We can nego–”
Liam Neeson’s gun: “BANG!”
2) Arab badguys that are actually badguys. No PC BS.
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