LOWEST RATED OSCAR TELECAST IN HISTORY?: Snubs of THE DARK KNIGHT, Clint Eastwood and Bruce Springsteen point toward a new ratings nadir for the Oscar show; The five Best Picture nominees have combined to gross only $186M, about what TDK delivered in first 4 days!
by Steve MasonNobody is ever completely satisfied with the Academy Award nominations, but with several key snubs, Oscar voters may have ensured that the 2009 telecast hits an all-time ratings low.
Investor Warren Buffet coined the phrase “skin in the game” to describe a situation where executives use their own money to buy shares in their company. The so-called Oracle of Omaha likes companies where insiders have their own money invested because they work harder, care more and generally are more emotionally invested.
The problem with the Oscars is that voters are nominating films that relatively few people have seen. The five movies nominated for Best Picture this week – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, The Reader and Frost/Nixon – have combined to gross just $186.7M. The Dark Knight passed that box office total early in its fifth day of release.
TO-DATE BOX OFFICE FOR 2009 BEST PICTURE NOMINEES
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – $104.3M
Slumdog Millionaire – $44.7M
Milk – $20.6M
Frost/Nixon – $8.9M
The Reader – $8M
How many average moviegoers and potential Oscar viewers have “skin in the game?” Based on the current average US ticket price ($7.15), only about 26 million Americans have seen Hollywood’s big five so far.
Yes, I think The Dark Knight should be a Best Picture nominee. It is absolutely one of my five favorite movies of 2008, and I believe it to be a masterpiece. Artistic excellence and blockbuster status are not mutually exclusive. I believe that one of the reasons Christopher Nolan’s comic book sequel soared past $500M US is that it struck a very real cultural chord with audiences.
There was talk that this comic book adaptation was too dark, but it is actually a relentlessly optimistic movie. What Heath Ledger’s Joker character demonstrates is that, even when the world is in shambles and people are faced with impossibly difficult choices, they do the right thing. The message of TDK is that regular people, at their core, are good. We need more movies like that right now.
I also believe that Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino, although not a perfect movie, should not have been snubbed entirely. No Best Actor for Eastwood’s turn as the irascible Walt Kowalski, and not even a Best Original Song nomination for co-writing the heartfelt theme song with his son Kyle and jazz vocalist Jamie Cullum. Gran Torino, by the way, with a to-date cume of $79.8M, has grossed more than all of the Best Picture nominees except Benjamin Button.
Other snubs that will depress the viewing audience include Best Original Song contenders, Bruce Springsteen (The Wrestler), Miley Cyrus (Bolt), Beyonce (Cadillac Records) and Alicia Keyes (Quantum of Solace). I have yet to get a good answer about why the Academy narrowed the category to just three nominees. If Bruce Springsteen is big enough for the halftime show at Super Bowl 43, he must be big enough for Hollywood’s biggest night, and if there were the usual five nominations here, Springsteen would have certainly been among them.
A disastrously low 31.76M viewers watched last year’s Oscar show for an all-time worst 18.6 Nielsen rating. Last year’s Best Picture nominees combined to gross $357.9M. This year, the five nominees will be lucky to combine for more than $300M domestic. How much lower can the TV ratings get?
There is a growing divide between what Academy voters view as film excellence and what audiences actually want to see. That’s not to say that all Best Picture nominees should be blockbusters, but they should include some true, crowd-pleasing hits. If you look at this list, it’s pretty clear where the Oscars came off the rails.
1993
Best Picture – Schindler’s List – $96M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $368.4M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 46.2M
1994
Best Picture – Forrest Gump – $329.7M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $543.5M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 46.26M
1995
Best Picture – Braveheart – $75.6M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $378.1M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 44.5M
1996
Best Picture – The English Patient – $78.6M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $306.5M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 40.8M
1997
Best Picture – Titanic – $600.8M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $998.2M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 57.2M
1998
Best Picture – Shakespeare in Love - $100.3M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $440.9M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 45.6M
1999
Best Picture – American Beauty – $130M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $647M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 46.5M
2000
Best Picture – Gladiator – $187.7M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $637M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 42.9M
2001
Best Picture – A Beautiful Mind – $170.7M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $620.1M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 40.5M
2002
Best Picture – Chicago – $170.6M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $664.5M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 33M
2003
Best Picture – Lord of the Rings: Return of the King – $377M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $725.9M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 43.5M
2004
Best Picture – Million Dollar Baby – $100.5M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $401.6M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 42.1M
2005
Best Picture – Crash – $54.5M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $245.3M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 38.9M
2006
Best Picture – The Departed – $132.3M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $296.7M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 39.9M
2007
Best Picture – No Country For Old Men – $74.2M cume
Combined domestic box office of the 5 Best Picture nominees – $357.9M
Total Oscar telecast viewers – 31.7M
In 1997, there were three $100M grossing movies including Titanic ($600.7M cume). Over the next seven awards cycles, there were at least two $100M grossers in each Best Picture field, and in 2000 there were four hits of that magnitude.
Then came 2005, when the five Best Picture nominees combined to gross just $245M.
BOX OFFICE FOR 2005 BEST PICTURE NOMINEES
Crash – $54.5M
Brokeback Mountain – $83M
Capote – $28.75M
Good Night and Good Luck – $31.5M
Munich – $47.4M
The disconnect between the Oscars and rank-and-file movie fans started in 2005. This is where the Academy Awards “came off the rails.” Only 38.9M viewers watched that telecast, and the Academy has continued marching to the beat of that noncommercial drummer ever since. In the final analysis, 17 of the last 20 Best Picture nominees (including the just announced group) have failed to break the $100M threshold. Unless the Academy figures out a way to give more rank-and-file moviegoers “skin in the game,” the ratings slide will continue. My hunch is that the 2009 Oscar telecast will be the lowest rated in history.
Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.








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75 Comments
I can’t remember when I have sat through an entire Oscar night – has to have been at least 20 years. I really enjoyed Mrs Henderson Presents – with Bob Hoskins and Judi Dench – The Dark Knight, Gran Torino…
You bet there is a disconnect….
Hi Madeline,
Interesting about Buffet. I’m going to look into that. On your other point, JAWS, STAR WARS, E.T and RAIDERS were all nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars.
Thanks for reading!
Steve
I saw <30 first-run features last year, well down from my usual 50+.
Including not a single one of the final 5 up for best pic. (I MAY make an exception for “Benjamin Button” but I doubt it. Movies that take their concept from “Mork & Mindy” don’t do alot for me cinematically.) Let alone at 10-12 bucks a whack; I pay my own tickets.
The rest I wouldn’t watch if they were sent to me free “for my consideration.”
Frankly, most of them ought to be screened 24/7 at Gitmo for the detainees, but Amnesty International would probably conclude that waterboarding is more humane.
I point it out again, “Fireproof,” made by volunteers in a southern Baptist church in what Hollywood considers Backwater, USA outgrossed 3 of the 5 Oscar nominees, a fact which doesn’t consider the number of people who turned out to see it at free screenings. And they did it with a pick-up cast of mostly amateurs, on a budget of $500K – less than most studios spend for bagels and coffee for the conference room each year.
The Oscars used to be a small banquet. It’s headed there again. Personally, I think they’re angling to nail the 2AM Saturday timeslot for a live broadcast on BRAVO. Or maybe they can just compress nominations and awards, and mail out the statues every New Years’ to the lowest grossing – and most grossly depressing – pieces of indie-crapola diaper scrapings.
At this rate, and with no changes, that’ll be in 2010. 2011 at the outside.
While I don’t think excellence in movies necessarily equates to how much money they make, I will admit to having zero interest in many of the movies the Oscars seem to go to. I’m not sure if I can chalk this up to the movies in question having morally bankrupt themes or messages at their core, since I can’t admit to having watched most of them. However, the last time I watched the Oscars was when “Crash” was lauded as some kind of transcendent masterpiece with a timely message (”America sure is racist. Everybody, everywhere, is a dirty racist. And possibly a rapist.”), while the Oscar-winning song “It’s Hard Out There For A Pimp” was performed on stage.
For some reason, I just don’t care what movies the Oscars go to any more.
The Academy must not like Chris Nolan.
I think I’ll boycott the Oscars this year, because of the Dark Knight snub. Based on principle.
Steve Mason,
Have you seen “Nothing But The Truth” yet? I just saw it tonight, and I’m curious about a conservative perspective. It has liberal connotations for sure, as any political movie will, but I felt like they explained both sides of the argument well.
Excuse me: “It’s Hard Out _Here_ For A Pimp.” My apologies.
What Hollywood has yet to come to grips with, is that in an age of 24 hour news channels, and information available instantly on the Internet, it’s no longer necessary to make the “message” movie. People have unlimited information available on any topic that interests them.
Look at the numbers for Milk (Gays) and Frost/Nixon (hard core liberals). Rather than shape public opinion, Hollywood is simply preaching to the choir with these narrowly focused boutique films. I’m really sorry Harvey Milk was killed, but that was thirty years ago and attitudes towards gays have shifted. The movie is twenty-five years too late. Sorry, but nobody cares.
Frost/Nixon -Please, Watergate has been done to death and people are savvy and politically astute enough to know that if Nixon were a Democrat, Woodward and Bernstein would be made the villains for asking the tough questions (sort of like Fox News is vilified by the left for daring to challenge the liberal line). Besides, who needs to watch two actors “imitating” Frost and Nixon, when one can watch the actual “real life” tapes themselves?
As an aside, I would have preferred to watch the “History” channel instead of the Oscars, but has anyone else noticed the sudden turn it’s taken to the far left? On the current financial crisis, Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats are all saints (really) bearing no responsibility for what’s happened (no mention of Barney Frank). And Lincoln was a homosexual, and really a racist, who had it in for the black man, etc. Though shall not ever speak positively of a Republican, even Abraham Lincoln. Talk about an agenda! What a sad turn for a once good channel.
I thought the Dark Knight went on way too long and I finally left the room (watched it at home). Not too impressed and I WILL NOT see the others.
ROGER:
And hey – would it be a great stretch to say that “WALL-E” was a message film? It certainly had a message, and yet it managed to be very entertaining.
Personally, I have no problem with movies having a message – on the contrary, I think that on the whole movies should have something at their core that make them more than a simple two-hour diversion – but at the same time it’s not always an easy thing to do well.
Yet more reason “WALL-E” should have won an award or two…
Steve, I think your estimation is a year behind. Look at the combined-box-office drop between 2003 and 2004 – $725M to $401M? The biggest fluctuation in five years? And quite possibly a harbinger of things to come.
It’s as if the Academy finally gave the Best Picture award to the final Lord of the Rings movie, almost as an apology for ignoring the first two films — and then turned around and collectively said: “As God is my witness, I will NEVER give this award to a blockbuster or a special-effects extravaganza or a f__king FANTASY MOVIE, EVER again. From now on, we stick with the goddamned dramas — and the less uplifting, the better!”
2003 was also the last time any film with a cumulative box office of more than $135M took Best Picture. An argument could be made that the less these films pull in, the more artistically “pure” they are, and the less tainted by pandering to the Lowest Common Denominator.
But maybe it’s going too far for me thus to speculate. The last thing I want to do is be responsible for putting words in Hollywood’s mouth.
I think Hollywood and the world of movies and television is becoming a closed world. I think they’re making movies and TV shows targeted for their own insular little society- we on the outside don’t figure in their plans. There are obvious exceptions- Marvel Studios springs to mind- but by and large I don’t think Hollywood cares what I think- they will tell me what I am to like.
Springsteen’s song is not nominated because he put it on his last album, which disqualified him. Maybe they should loosen the rules, but there was no snub there. Now Gran Torino’s song, that was a snub, compounded by the restriction to 3 nominees. Would it have killed them to nominate Clint for an award this year? There must be a good story behind that.
Conservative columnist Mark Steyn wrote an excellent piece on this same topic a few years back. I can’t find it on his site but it’s reproduced here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1576036/posts
I think people are finally realizing the Academy is nothing but the Politburo handing out service medals for a job well done.
I’m hoping the hissy fit of the last 8 years is going to reap its reward. The average movie goer is awake now, knowing who and what these people are up to and are speaking with their time and money.
Fortunato,
In what universe is Slumdog Millionaire “not a success”? It’s completely made it’s shooting budget back, has been consistently in the Top 10 of the box office for nearly a month, and is on track to make $100 million by the time awards season is over? Considering that the movie doesn’t have a SINGLE known Hollywood actor and is mostly in Hindi, it’s a smashing success. While I agree that for a majority of the film the phrase “feel good” doesn’t come to mind, it still remains an ultimately uplifting film. If anything, the movie is a dazzling technical masterpiece that at least attempts to present a different visual palette than the rather boring compositions you see in films like Frost/Nixon, Doubt, and sorry to say Gran Torino.
Gee Bob, Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby hadn’t played on 1000 screens when it was nominated for 7 Oscars. So, by your formula, it should have been disqualified?
Yes, the late release pattern of some Oscar contenders is a little problematic. Of course, as has been pointed out, several of the recent Oscar winners for Best Picture weren’t slammed into the theaters the last week of December. No Country for Old Men was released in October, Departed in October, American Beauty in September, Gladiator in June, Crash in May. The more films released before December that win Best Picture, the more the release patterns will adjust. Slumdog Millionaire was released in November, and they had screener DVD’s sent to the Academy voters before Ben Button was even theatrically released.
With prints and advertising for most major releases nearing $100M and budgets routinely soaring past $150M, I think the $100M box office number has been officially rendered meaningless as a benchmark of success. It would make infinitely more sense to count the number of tickets sold instead.
I am sick and tired of some ignorant LIBTARD in Hollywood telling me how I should think or vote. They abuse their positions within society to further their stupid whims.People are tired of this and have started witholding our money from these so called “intelligent” persons of society and the idiotic movies/records that they make(DIXIE CHICKS). They are so caught up in themselves that they cant see that their own views are killing their careers (SARANDON/HUTTON).The ones with the biggest mouths are now working in the smallest venues working one crowd versus the thousands inside a cinema on any given night. We are sick of the rehashed versions of the same movie I saw in grade school.Come up with some new ideas.Hollywood is no longer entertaining but rather insulting and a complete waste of my time to watch. That incleudes the sports programming too.
A 5 year old can be a actor/singer,but not a lawyer,teacher,doctor,mechanic,truck driver,logger,etc.etc.
Look up to and respect someone with a real brain between their ears instead of someone lying to you in thru the lens of a movie camera or from behind a microphone.
Umm…Timothy Hutton is “destroying his career with his views”? Or did you mean Lauren Hutton? Or E.F. Hutton?
Seriously, fool, at least get the NAMES right when you post idiots rants.
However, the last time I watched the Oscars was when “Crash” was lauded as some kind of transcendent masterpiece with a timely message (”America sure is racist. Everybody, everywhere, is a dirty racist. And possibly a rapist.”) ….
That also was about the time I got fed up with Hollywood. I’ve never watched the Oscars, but Crash was the first movie I simply stopped and removed from my DVD player in a long while (I almost never watch movies in the theater anymore). I stopped the DVD shortly after a scene whereby some racist bad guys were doing something or another in an office setting. On the wall was a picture or Arnold Schwarzenegger. The whole “Let’s put the picture of a Republican on the wall because Republicans are racist and these bad guys are racist, too, nyuk-nyuk-nyuk” thing is just so monumentally idiotic and cliche that I couldn’t watch any more of that blindingly vapid and epic fail of a movie.
And I’m neither a Republican nor a fan of Ahnuld.
I just got fed up with shallow, stupid people lecturing me on how the world works when clearly they haven’t got a friggin’ clue. Receiving an award for their shallowness and stupidity was just too much.
I would have preferred to watch the “History” channel instead of the Oscars, but has anyone else noticed the sudden turn it’s taken to the far left?
I noticed that about five or six years ago. It was on President’s Day, and The History Channel was doing an all-day thing with half-hour shows on each President. When they got to Carter, Carter was depicted as a guy who meant well with significant accomplishments (Iran was not his fault), and Reagan was depicted as a guy who accomplished little, was mean-spirited, and whose administration was absolutely plagued by scandal (the Oliver North thing was at least one-third of the show).
No more History Channel. I haven’t paid for a ‘full’ cable package since.
If it makes some of you guys feel better, more than a few people on the “left” absolutely hated Crash as well.
The Academy Awards are given by a bunch of pretentious narcissists who gather annually to try to deceive themselves into believing that their psuedo-intellectualism has depth and meaning. Unable to bear the light, they struggle in decadent darkness witha misguided belief that greater degradation is somehow a creative act because it hasn’t been done before. So they, devoid of real creative virtue, impotent when it comes to elevating the human condition, draw the blinds, close the doors, and shut off all the light and then proceed to tell each other how beautiful and desirable are their ugliness, weakness, and ignorance.
Over the course of my lifetime, I’ve watched Hollywood transform from a unifying and edifying community that upheld principles of liberty and virtue to one that prostitutes itself and undermines historically proven core values and virtues. Hollywood’s consituents are left with a hole in their souls that they desperately try to fill through activism; but their witless, empty hearts lead them to push even harder toward unrestrained licentiousness – thinking they would “feel better” if they could just cut loose the last vestiges of anchor and destroy the compelling compass and declarative rudders that proves them to be adrift.
So, what “core value” did you feel Hollywood movies once held up back in the day. Considering that those movies were subjected to a Production Code, would you endorse censorship of today’s films in order to recapture that halcyon age?
Umm…shouldn’t the relevant question be whether the Best Picture nominees actually are, I dunno, the best pictures of the year? And if those best pictures aren’t grossing well, shouldn’t we ask 1) Whether they were advertised correctly and 2) Whether the problem is that the movie-going public has lousy taste?
Well, since 2005, the nominees have been better films, too.
That said, the Academy would have been fully justified this year in nominating at least two high-grossers (The Dark Knight, Wall-E) and a third crowd-pleaser (Gran Torino) that some very good critics love.
Instead, they nominated a field of sub-par prestige films with the worst combined box office in decades.
I mean, if this were last year and The Dark Knight had been snubbed in favor of No Country, Zodiac, Jesse James, There Will Be Blood, and Once, I would understand. But for Frost/Nixon and a Holocaust film with mixed reviews? That I do not get.
I know you’re not, but if you were to ask me, I think the Oscars began to go “off the rails” or started to become irrelevant in 1998. That was the year when Shakespeare in Love–a movie I doubt I would even have a clue on the plot if not for the title–won over Saving Private Ryan. To me, that is the year the Oscars lost credibility.
There are other factors I think have more impact on why the televised Oscar audience is going down over the past few years than the gross revenues.
- A general realization that the Oscars are little more than Hollywood’s way of giving itself a pat on its collective back. Not exactly compelling.
- The availability of much more interesting programming on the other networks, cable, and even the internet (see credibility problem above)
- No one has to watch the Oscars any longer to see what the parts they care about: internet outlets provide the means for people to pull up only those parts that they care to see (for example, I only cared about Jon Stewart’s monologues from a few years back).
- There is also the effect of people who DVR the telecast and watch it later — I understand these are not even comprehended in the ratings numbers that get get published.
As a counter argument/theory to your lowest ratings prediction, though, I think that the current shape of the economy for so many people may keep them in front of the TV to watch the Oscars, since it is cheap to watch …
Tom: I think that the “taste” of the movie-going public is as irrelevant as the taste of the movie makers. If you are making films no one wants to see you are making home movies.
Keep on losing money, hollywood!
the dark knight should of have got nominated for best pic.
[...] have us do away with NEA funding for the arts are simply beside themselves with grief. First, from Steve Mason’s column this AM: Yes, I think The Dark Knight should be a Best Picture nominee. It is absolutely one of my [...]
“If I want to send a message I’ll use Western Union.”
Actually, it was “If you want to send a message, call Western union.” by Samuel Goldwyn.
And The Town:
We’re not ccomplaining because movies we like didn’t get picked. We’re disgusted because they perenially pick movies NO ONE liked, outside of an insular cabal of tasteless leftists enamored of smearing feces on a wall and calling it art.
I think that the “taste” of the movie-going public is as irrelevant as the taste of the movie makers. If you are making films no one wants to see you are making home movies.
If you think this year’s Oscar picks are bad movies*, say so and discourage others from seeing them. If you think they’re good movies, say so and encourage others to see them. How many people have already seen it tells you nothing about whether or not the movie was any good and is — at best — tangential to this discussion.
*Though pretty, Benjamin Button is an overrated dud. I’d happily have seen it replaced by either In Bruges or TDK.
We’re disgusted because they perennially pick movies NO ONE liked, outside of an insular cabal of tasteless leftists enamored of smearing feces on a wall and calling it art.
Then just say it’s a bad movie and shouldn’t be nominated. There’s no need to turn this into some kind of reverse-snobbery BS.
The selection process for the Oscars is the same as the so-called Nobel Peace Prize. Namely who tried hardest to advance a current left wing cause. That’s it.
I will not watch, and haven’t watched, for a long time. I cannot stand, watching these “stars”, pat each other on the back, preach their far-left agenda, and be so shallow, to stand up there and have praise heaped onto them, all because they remembered their lines!
Take Anthony Hopkins’ advice, “It’s just a job!”
If you can make any money off these blow-hard actors, do what I did…I gathered up all my Streisand CD’s and took them to a 2nd hand store, her spouting off at Bush and Republcans all the time, made me think, why am I supporting her career and giving her my hard earned money?
This is one time, I can truly say, I got something from nothing!
Kate Winslet movies are responsible for destroying more invested capital in 2008 then CitiBank did.
[...] Speaking of Hollywood getting things wrong, this New York Observer headline sums up my feelings on The Dark Knight snub; Big Hollywood expounds on the topic. [...]
If you didn't like "Slumdog" you don't have a heart! Also if released earlier more people would have seen and loved "The Wrestler." I hate how people say that the Best Picture should be popular. If that was the case "Madea goes to Jail" would win the oscar based on the amount of people at the theaters this weekend. The Dark Knight was great and should have replaced Frost / Nixon but that's about it. What's worse is that Peter Gabriel let John Legend sing his song while he was in the audience.
[...] turns out there’s not as hard a connection between popular movies and good Nielsen ratings as I feared. But where was Jack? And when did [...]
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