Biggest MLK Weekend Ever!: PAUL BLART: MALL COP with all-time 2nd-best MLK opening at $39M, GRAN TORINO rallies for strong #2 finish; MY BLOODY VALENTINE 3-D and NOTORIOUS battle for fourth; HOTEL FOR DOGS headed for solid $22.5M 4-day!

Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony), My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) and the Sean Combs’-produced hip hop biopic Notorious (Fox Searchlight) lead a strong-performing quartet of wide releases as Hollywood seems headed for the biggest 4-day Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday weekend in history. I am projecting that the top twelve movies will gross an estimated $199M, 25% better than the previous record best, which was set last year.

DOMESTIC GROSS FOR TOP 12 MOVIES FOR MLK 4-DAY
[followed by #1 movie for the period and 4-day gross]
2008 – $158.9M [Cloverfield - $46.1M]
2007 – $118.8M [Stomp the Yard - $25.8M]
2006 – $125.4M [Glory Road - $16.9M]
2005 – $142.7M [Coach Carter - $29.1M]
2004 – $114.2M [Along Came Polly - $114.2M]
2003 – $120.8M [Kangaroo Jack - $21.8M]
2002 – $129.5M [Black Hawk Down - $33.6M]
2001 – $146.5M [Save the Last Dance - $27.5M]
2000 – $100.5M [Next Friday - $16.9M]
1999 – $101.7M [Varsity Blues - $17.5M]

The 2008 MLK 4-day was led by JJ Abrams’ monster movie Cloverfield ($46.1M opening), but this year there are multiple hits with four new wide releases topping $20M.

Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony), a big, dumb comedy featuring King of Queens star Kevin James, scored about $9.5M on Friday, and it seems headed for a spectacular $39M by Monday night. James is a likeable enough comedy star, and he has worked this movie very hard doing lots of local radio, chasing the male audience with appearances on ESPN, and he’s coming off the very successful I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry ($34.2M opening – $120M cume) with Adam Sandler in 2007.

Reviews for Paul Blart: Mall Cop are awful (28% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but the movie, written by James and produced by Sandler, has connected with Males Under 25. It’s the same comic sensibility as this summer’s Sandler vehicle You Don’t Mess with the Zohan ($38.5M opening – $100M cume), and it’s remarkable that James has been able to open Mall Cop even bigger. In fact, this popcorn movie becomes the all-time second-best 4-day MLK weekend opening.

ALL-TIME BEST 4-DAY MLK WEEKEND OPENINGS
1. Cloverfield (Paramount) – $46.2M
2. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $39M (projected)
3. Black Hawk Down (Sony) – $33.6M
4. Along Came Polly (Universal) – $32.4M
5. Coach Carter (Paramount) – $29.1M

After trailing the new biopic about the life and death of rapper Biggie Smalls for much of the weekend, Walt Kowalski appears to have rallied for a second-place finish. Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino (Warner Bros) is proving to be very strong in its second weekend of wide release, adding about $26.21M for 4-days. The surprise Eastwood-directed hit, which may just earn him a Best Actor nomination when the Oscar announcement comes Thursday morning, will have a new domestic take of $77.21M, making it the fifth-biggest grossing movie of Clint’s career.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 CLINT EASTWOOD MOVIES
1. In the Line of Fire – $102.3M cume
2. Unforgiven – $101.1M cume
3. Million Dollar Baby – $100.5M
4. Space Cowboys – $90.4M cume
5. Gran Torino – $77.21M cume (projected)

When Monday numbers come in, it will be very close between Notorious and the Lionsgate slasher pic My Bloody Valentine 3-D, although both movies are out-performing expectations. I am now giving a slight edge the 3-D offering.

My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate), a remake of the 1981 cult horror classic has 2,534 playdates, and it is the widest-ever modern 3-D release with 1,033 screens. Reviews are surprisingly good (70% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), although the raves are different from the ones reserved for awards contenders. For example, Kevin Carr from a website called 7M Pictures, says, “Body parts are lopped off. Pick axes are stabbed at the camera. There’s even a completely naked girl chased by the killer, in glorious 3D. This movie spoke to me.”

Lionsgate is masterful at marketing this sort of genre pic, and the all new 3-D technology is truly spectacular. It grabbed $8.25M Friday (tied for second), and the slasher flick seems headed for a possible $24.24M for 4 days. This is the sort of strong performance for a 3-D title that may encourage more exhibitors to add digital projection to theatres so that they can show upcoming 3-D movies like the animated Coraline (Focus) on February 6, Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) on February 27 and Monsters & Aliens from Dreamworks Animation coming March 27 (although the cost of converting to digital continues to be a huge burden at $100,000 per screen).

Notorious, starring newcomer Jamal Woolard may get nosed out for fourth-place, despite starting the weekend with a fantastic $8.25M (it was very front-loaded). The generally well-reviewed film (51% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), is playing huge with urban audiences and Fox Searchlight has carefully selected the right locations to maximize the picture’s gross. Sean “Diddy” Combs is the producer, and he has surrounded Woolard with excellent actors, including Oscar nominee Angela Bassett as Biggie’s mom, Independent Spirit Award nominee Anthony Mackie (The Hurt Locker) as Tupac Shakur and Antwone Fisher’s Derek Luke as Combs himself.

Checking in at #5 is the new Dreamworks/Paramount family comedy Hotel For Dogs, which scored an estimated $4.35M Friday (#5 for the day), and, as the only new kid-friendly picture in the market, attracted plenty of teens and tweens at matinees on Saturday and Sunday. It will also have an excellent Monday and may reach $22.5M for the 4-day.

Finally, Edward Zwick’s Defiance (Paramount Vantage), the PTA champ for the past two weekends, has expanded to 1,789 playdates, and it has scored a nice upside surprise. With a cast that includes Daniel Craig (Quantum of Solace), Live Schriber (The Manchurian Candidate) and Jamie Bell (Billy Elliot), the film has failed to generate much love from awards voters, but it is selling tickets. Defiance seized $2.7M on its first day of wide release, and it seems headed for a possible $10.7M by Monday night.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $9.75M, $3,101 PTA, $9.75M cume
2. NEW – Notorious (Fox Searchlight) – $8.25M, $5,037 PTA, $8.25M cume
3.  NEW – My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) – $8.25M, $3,256 PTA, $8.25M cume
4. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $6.25M, $2,103, $57.24M cume
5. NEW – Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $4.35M, $1,330 PTA, $4.35M cume
6. Bride Wars (Fox) – $3.75M, $1,162 PTA, $29.57M cume
7. The Unborn (Rogue) – $3.31M, $1,405 PTA, $26.55M cume
7. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) – $2.7M, $1,509 PTA, $3.04M cume
8. Marley & Me (Fox) – $1.67M, $567 PTA, $128.08M cume
10. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $1.6M, $720 PTA, $98.62M cume
11. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $1.56M, $2,680 PTA, $38.39M cume
12. Last Chance Harvey (Overture) – $1.25M, $1,186 PTA, $1.84M cume
13. Bedtime Stories (Disney) – $1.22M, $468 PTA, $100.13M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON REVISED 4-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $39M, $12,405 PTA, $39M cume
2. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $26.21M, $8,821, $77.21M cume
3. NEW – My Bloody Valentine 3-D (Lionsgate) – $24.24M, $9,566 PTA, $24.24M cume
4. NEW – Notorious (Fox Searchlight) – $24M, $14,652 PTA, $24M cume
5. NEW – Hotel For Dogs (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $22.5M, $6,879 PTA, $22.5M cume
6. Bride Wars (Fox) – $14.02M, $4,345 PTA, $39.85M cume
7. The Unborn (Rogue) – $10.99M, $4,660 PTA, $34.23M cume
8. Defiance (Paramount Vantage) – $10.7M, $5,981 PTA, $11.04M cume
9. Marley & Me (Fox) – $7.45M, $2,524 PTA, $133.85M cume
10. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $7.15M, $12,285 PTA, $43.98M cume
11. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $6.6M, $2,970 PTA, $103.62M cume
12. Bedtime Stories (Disney) – $6.08M, $2,323 PTA, $104.98M cume
13. Last Chance Harvey (Overture) – $5.12M, $5,858 PTA, $5.71M cume