EARLY TRACKING: Kate Hudson-produced BRIDE WARS may hold off MARLEY & ME and GRAN TORINO for weekend win!
by Steve MasonA year ago, Fox scored a January hit with the female-geared 27 Dresses. The Katherine Heigl vehicle chick-flick opened with $23M on the weekend of January 18 en route to a nifty $76.8M domestic gross. Now Kate Hudson has produced and stars in the wedding-themed comedy Bride Wars, debuting on just over 3,000 screens in Friday.
Early reviews are downright awful for Bride Wars (00% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday night), but Kate Hudson is a likable personality whose sub-par rom-com Fool’s Gold opened to $21.5M last February. Add to the mix Anne Hathaway with $100M-grossing movies Get Smart ($130.3M cume) and The Devil Wears Prada ($124.7) on her recent resume, and you’ve got a picture that could win the weekend. Tracking is strong with Under 25’s, and the Mean Girls-style marketing improves the chances that Under 25 Males will allow themselves to be dragged along to see it.
I am anticipated that David Frankel’s Marley & Me (Fox) will make it a 1-2 Fox finish. Based on John Grogan’s beloved memoir, this lovable lab-turned-box office star should paw its way to another $15.16M or so, down about 37% from New Year’s weekend.
Clint Eastwood’s Gran Torino has platformed perfectly and looks particularly strong for its wide break. Its Definite Interest number in industry tracking approaches 50 and its First Choice is a couple of ticks below 20, but much of its appeal is older, and it has a strong R rating. I’m forecasting something in the mid-teens and a good solid 3rd place finish, although an upside surprise is certainly possible. It’s not inconceivable that Gran Torino could pull off an upset and win the weekend, but I would be surprised given that it is on 400 or so fewer screens than Bride Wars.
It’s January, which means that there is always room for a horror movie. This week’s supernatural potboiler is David S. Goyer’s The Unborn (Rogue/Universal), from the low budget horror specialists at Platinum Dunes (2003’s Texas Chainsaw Massacre and The Hitcher remake and The Invisible both in 2007). Tracking suggests that the response for this one will possibly be a rather muted $12.35M by Monday.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) and Bedtime Stories (Disney) will battle for the #5 spot, and I am giving Button the slight edge. Fincher’s epic, adapted from an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story, is on an awards carpet ride from now through February, and hardcore movies fans will want to rush out and see Ben Button prior to Sunday night’s Golden Globes ceremony on NBC.
The other wide new release is Bill Duke’s Not Easily Broken (Sony) starring Morris Chestnut and Taraji P. Hemson. Awareness is low and with well fewer than 1,000 screens, the movie is unlikely to top $3.5M.
FINAL PREDICTED WEEKEND GROSSES FOR JANUARY 9-11
1. NEW – Bride Wars (Fox) – $19M
2. Marley & Me (Fox) – $15.16M
3. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) – $14.63M
4. NEW – The Unborn (Universal) – $12.35M
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) – $11.83M
6. Bedtime Stories (Disney) – $11.06M
7. Valkyrie (UA/MGM) – $9M
8. Yes Man (Warner Bros) – $8.9M
9. Seven Pounds (Sony) – $5.27M
10. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) – $3.7M
11. NEW – Not Easily Broken (Sony) – $3.43M
12. Doubt (Miramax) – $3.32M
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11 Comments
Seems low on bride wars, Fools gold got 21.5 without the added bonus of Hathaway. Reason for the smaller number?
I know I will be seeing Gran Torino this weekend. I’m not sure about The Unborn though. Recent horror movies have been a bit tame and quite frankly, very terrible (don’t get me started on The Eye). However Gary Oldman is in the movie so there is hope that it could be good.
Gran Torino was such a sensitive and beautiful movie. Don’t miss it. Clint and Supporting cast deserve Oscar. Set in the Backdrop of the Detroit suburbs, Clint faces down a gang, and finds his humanity. Its stunning. I can’t say enough about it.
If Heigl, Hudson, Hathaway, Julia Roberts and Sandra Bullock, except one, were all left for dead in China, would anyone really notice?
JohnFnWayne,
No.
From the previews, “Bride Wars” looks absolutely horrendous. “Women in bridal gowns beating each other up! It’s funny!” Um, not. Maybe people will go and see it, but I can’t imagine why.
This week’s screening for Bride Wars in Denver was packed … anecdotal evidence of how it will fare this weekend, no doubt, but still a sign that the movie’s theme is hitting a nerve with audiences.
No contest.
Gran Torino easily #1.
The trump card being that Clint acts in as well as directs.
Also, “much of it’s appeal is older.” Another trump.
Just a guess.
Am tired of your site telling me ”Your commenting too quickly, slow down” every time I click to submit my comment! Aaaarrrgh!
So, now I must re-type my comment.
Hudson. No interest. Face like Ellen Barkin minus acting chops. Hathaway, she’s OK. Storyline seems ludicrous.
I’m hoping for an Eastwood victory. Gran Torino is better than most of the films with higher Oscar buzz. Slumdog Millionaire will be ahead of Doubt, possibly repeating in the top ten again.
My parents went to see Bride Wars they said the theater was full and the Unborn was sold out. We live in CT is its not really that big of deal but its still kind of shocking.
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