Box Office Predictions: ‘Contraband’ Avoids ‘Noise,’ Takes on ‘Beast’
by Movie Critic AssassinsSensei extended his streak last week. His streak at calling the correct #1 film now sits at eight straight weeks. That streak faces a tough test as three new releases could all take the top spot.
All calls this weekend are 4 day (Fri-Mon) to incorporate the holiday weekend:
1. Contraband ($24 million) – Up to a few weeks ago, this weekend appeared an easy win for “Beauty And The Beast 3D.” This is in light of the success “Lion King 3D” had last year. Things have now changed. With the success of “Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol” leading the way, action audiences are more likely to see “Contraband.” It also helps to have actor Mark Wahlberg star, which may attract audiences nostalgic for “The Italian Job” and hence lead to this surprise finish.
2. Beauty And The Beast ($20 million) – Sensei did very well predicting “Lion King 3D”’s run at the top, and the addition of the new short film “Tangled Ever After” will help this film be the prime draw for families throughout the weekend. “Contraband” will open very strong early though, making it tough to catch. “Beast” will close the gap, but we predict “Contraband” holds for the win.
3. Joyful Noise ($15.7 million) – Dolly Parton’s latest project is fun and lively, and the film’s musical pedigree will help its box office tremendously. Queen Latifah is a very good box office draw, and as long as this film stays positive (no political or controversial sucker punches), it will do very well this weekend.
4. Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol ($14 million) – The film deserves high praise for helping set up this box office weekend. By exciting action/adventure audiences (as opposed to disappointing them), they are now returning in greater numbers. Again, this film will pull solid numbers and even jump back over “The Devil Inside,” which knocked it from the top spot last weekend.
5. The Devil Inside ($12 million) – This horror flick posted a very high opening last weekend, but it now returns to box office reality. The film will post a significant drop much like “The Last Exorcism” did in its second week. Still, considering how inexpensive the film was to produce ($1 million), can’t complain about that profit margin.
In other calls, look for “The Iron Lady” to pull in around $4 million off its expansion.
Sensei predicts a “Contraband” win, but how do you see it?
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16 Comments
I agree with Sensei. Mark Wahlberg will be a huge draw, as he appeals to both men and women. Plus, he's pretty versatile (see: The Other Guys).
Beauty & The Beast's audience will mostly comprise of grandparents taking their grandchildren, since they probably took their own children years ago and watched the DVD several hundred times. I don't see it as a vehicle for the original kids, who are now in their early 20's.
I'm not too familiar with the rest, so I respectfully leave that to the powers of the Sensei.
I wonder if MI:4 will pass $500M in worldwide grosses.
Really? I'd imagine a good chunk of the people who go to see Beauty and the Beast will be twenty-thirtysomethings who are feeling nostalgic for the well-made animated films Disney put out during their childhood. It'll attract the same type of adults who go to see every Pixar movie today, even if the don't have children.
I'll disagree with Sensei and pick "Beauty and the Beast" for #1.
(The couple of times I've disagreed with Sensei I've been wrong though!)
I know i have made this point before, but it does not hurt to make it again. Mission Impossible IV is still performing strongly here and overseas. This is a film where American covert operatives are portrayed as brave, honorable, selfless, and dedicated to protecting the innocent (as opposed to the disillusioned skeptics of "Body of Lies" and the stone cold assasins who either target civilians or end up as self loathers like the "Bourne" series); the threat comes not from "deranged right wingers" or "corrupt capitalists", but from a fantical foreign terrorist (though not jihadist); the direct actions of the President (who at this time is Obama) are shown to be not just counter-productive, but quite dangerous (and weaselly); and the blatant dishonesty of the media is not just recognized, but outright stated. DOES HOLLYWOOD REALIZE WHAT IT HAS DONE? = SEE NEXT POST FOR A NEW REALIZATION
While there is NO DOUBT that Hollywood is in the tank for Obama, it has come to my attention how one studio has consistently released major motion pictures that have portrayed either Obama, his policies, his administration members, or his general representaion in a negative manner. That studio is Paramount Pictures. I will not gues as to the intent of the studio or the film makers behind these films (whether these attacks are intentional or not). I can speak for the end result. Allow me to explain, thought there WILL BE SPOILERS.
1. Transformers 2 (2009): The Obama Administration (he is specifically named as president in the film) is portrayed as antagonistic, weak, and a hindrance to the American Military. Through his incompetent. antagonistic, and alienating National Security Advisor; the audience is told that the Obama has considered that the Autobots are actually resposiible for the conflict that occurs in the film more than the Decepticons. We are also told that he is considering negotiating with the Decepitcons and shuts down the joint Autobot/military unit created by Bush to combat the Decepticons (400 million US gross/800 million world gross) Se next Post
Continuation from previous post
2. Iron Man 2 (2010): The government (in the form of the Democratic led Senate) is viewed as intrusive in attempting to forcibly impose its will on private corporations and citizens (both Tony Stark and Stark enterprises). It attempts to manipulate the military in public (purposely taking Col Rhodes words out of context and ommitting some of his comments) as a power play. This leads Tony Stark to humiliate the Senate in the name of "real transparency". The film also makes a point of saying that people should NOT be forced to tow the liberal line (Stark: "I'm tired of the liberal agenda). There is even a small joke at the expense of Obama (Tony putting a Hope and Change picture that replaces the face of Obama with that of Iron Man). (300 million US gross/ 600 million world wide gross) SEE NEXT POST
"Contraband". Saw it. A forgettable so so action film with a silly script. Beckingsale, Foster, and Ribisi are wasted. C+ at best.
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3. Thor (2011)The hero is a head strong action taking cowboy, who After an attack by an enemy force on his homeland, rushes to attack the enemy without thinking things through (BUSH/IRAQ WAR ALLEGORY? OK). HOWEVER,he's well intentioned, good hearted individual who lives by a code of honor and has earned the respect of his military and those in the Earth realm and dicovers that while his attack on the enemy wasn't carried out well, his belief that the attack on his homeland was more than the act of some rogues and part of a grander insidious plot was correct.The villian,like Obama, is a smooth talking prince/politician who "vocally" opposed war and claims he must take charge and undo the damage done by the hero. However, he is an opportunistic, manipulative backstabber who alienates the military, starts molding Asgard into a dictatorship, cozies up to the enemy, and throws many allies "under the bus" to further his own ambitions. He also starts an unfocused war in the name of improving his image In the end, Thor/Bush must stop and undo the damage by LOKI/ OBAMA. 180 million domestic gross/ 450 million world gross/ HIGHEST GROSSING COMIC BOOK ADAPTATION OF 2011.NEXT POST
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Finally: Transformers III (2011) = The american military again saves the planet from invasion/genocide/ and enslavement. The Obama Administration (along with his National Intelligence Director who hates being called "Maam") again comes off as arrogant, dismissive, antagonistic, and this time they actually appease the enemy (under pressure from the United Nations) by siding with the Decepticons over the Autobots on the name of peace. The Administration's actions directly leads to the deaths of thousands of Americans, with the American military and the Autobots having to save the planet and clean up the Administration's mess. 350 million domestic gross/ 1.1 billion world gross. See next post
The past few posts have reveled that , intentionally or not; Paramount Pictures has been releasing major motion pictures each year that don present Obama/ his adminstration/ or his policies. And lets not forget the previously mentioned MI:4 ; where we are told that THE PRESIDENT HIMSELF has refused to further investigate the terrorist attack on the KREMLIN (done by a foreign terrorist) and instead throw our heroes under the bus for the sake of politics by disavowing an ENTIRE agency (IMF) dedicated to protecting the American People (thus forcing its members to go underground because they all now have bullseyes on their heads) and specifically designating our heroes (American Covert Operatives) as "terrorist extremists" (out of the Janet Napolitano handbook) to be dealt with as such. 175 million domestic gross/ 476 million world wide and counting. Al of this makes for interesting pondering.
I'm a grandparent?
My 20-year old (who's single) and my nearly 17-year old haven't told me anything!
PS: Other than me and my friend, there were THREE families in there, each with a toddler or young elementary kid and whose parents were mid-late twenties.
Try again on the guessing game.
Nothing in "Contraband" compelled me to see this. Oh, and "Republicans suck!" Beckinsale is in it, so…skip.
Not knowing who's at Paramount, I would rather look at who's behind "Transformers."
Both Michael Bay and Jerry Bruckheimer are HUGE fans and supporters of the United States Military. Have been for decades. And with the kind of clout they both have, they're not terrified of ruffling the feathers of the opposite political side.
Most of the people just go to see the movie without thinking about politics.
I have a 22-year-old daughter and a 19-year-old son, so between the "Beauty" and the "Beast" I've seen this movie at least a hundred times. I can categorically say that neither one has the slightest interest in seeing the 3D version … nor do their friends. Both are in college, I texted them and asked about it and they both thought I was crazy.
I also have a 13-year-old daughter who went through the B&B phase, and she's not interested, either. She feels that Disney is too young for her. (as I wonder where the time went …. ).
I adore the film, and was thrilled that it was the first animated movie to be nominated by the AMPAS for "Best Picture".
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