You can read it here: http://blog.pmarca.com/2007/11/rebuilding-holl.html

I’m also eager for the next post; as this is how I make my living, it helps to be ahead of the curve.

I did point out a lot of great TV is being done now. My favorite shows are mostly on places like HBO, Showtime, and the cable channels. But the subscriber shows are a tiny minority of TV programming. The Vast Wasteland applies to the bulk of what’s on, though it is subjective and I agree there are more oasis out there than before.

However, the future of television and Hollywood is about to make a big shift. Which I’ll be getting into next. We’re at the beginning of a major sea change. Kind of like when the old studio system died off, only more radical. I think it’ll be a positive change in the long run.

Anyway, more on that in the next post.

There’s no doubt that the business model, not to mention delivery system, will evolve over the coming years. But your basing much of this piece on the impact of advertising on TV, when in fact most of the best television out there comes to us by way of subscriber dough — HBO, Showtime, etc. That’s a completely different world with completely different network expectations. Secondly, it’s not all that hard to find good TV, you just have to know where to look. Whether it’s BSG on the Sci Fi Channel, or Skins on BBC America. Pete makes a more salient point about the benefits involved in the Brit model — limited run series. But speaking as a viewer, I’m not averse to following a show, and therefore a narrative, beyond 16 episodes. In some cases, I’d almost demand it.

And as a writer? That’s a no-brainer. Tho’ I’d think a kind of happy medium would work quite well, as they’ve done with Lost (another point Pete makes).

But variety being the spice of life and all that, between 300 channels and dvr/tivo I can easily find something I’m interested in. This is a golden age of television both in the quality of the writing (granted subjective) and the sheer diversity of the programming. At the same time I can find a history of Poland, travel information for the Canadian Pacific coast, regional sports, stop-motion comedy, and Law & Order (Law & Order is available 24/7 somewhere on cable). OCommonMan, you swore off TV too soon. With dvr/Tivo, even baseball is watcheable again. Record the game, start watching an hour or 2 after it starts, blow through the commercials and game delays.

The real advent we should be seeing is the acceptance by advertisers of quality viewers versus bulk viewers. Fans of American idol or Dancing with the Stars don’t care about who’s paying the bills. Fanatic fans like Lost, Heroes or Ugly Betty (when weighed for their devotion) should be a greater return.

The American television business model unfortunately is predicated on a series making at least four seasons, preferably five in order to secure the all important syndication deal. A really high concept show is going to have an awfully hard time sustaining the energy to make that many episodes without a real slide in quality. It’s even harder for the high concept show to build enough of an audience to justify five seasons. For every Lost, you get five According to Jims.

Lost, by setting an expiration date three seasons ahead of time, rejuvanated itself. I think a lot of series should announce an expiration date.

Yep. Those are early examples of pointcasting. Advertisements based on your shopping habits. They will get even more sophisticated as I will discuss next time.