It didn’t get as much attention as it should have, but GOP Pollster Glen Bolger has done a fascinating poll.  He finds Republicans leading the generic congressional ballot, 44% to 39%.   No biggie.  But look at the crosstabs: ”Besides all of the usual regional crosstabs, we also broke it out by the type of district. We looked at the sample in the 66 Democratic INCUMBENT districts that Charlie Cook lists as either toss-up or leaning Democratic at the time of the survey. In that key crosstab of Swing Democratic Incumbent Seats, the Republican lead grows to 49%-31% on the generic ballot. That is a very powerful crosstab that says the wave is coming. Among the remaining Democratic districts (Likely/Safe Dem, and open seats), the generic ballot is an unsurprisingly 33% GOP/51% Dem — a sign that the historically safe Dem seat will remain so, while the swing seats will be a bloodbath.”

Bolger is on to something.  This is not a presidential election year.  What counts are the states and congressional districts with competitive races.  It’s clear that Republicans hold a huge advantage at this point.  But there is another critical point to consider — who will vote.  Another poll released yesterday showed that Independents are breaking toward the GOP as well.

On top of that, 60 Plus’ recent poll showed that seniors — the citizens with the highest propensity to vote — are angry and getting madder by the day thanks to the FDA’s consideration of rationing of the late stage cancer treatments. Poll showed that 78% of registered voters worry that the FDA decision on the drug Avastin represents the start of rationing and 71% would vote against any candidate siding with the FDA on the issue–pretty devastating numbers for Democrats who promised the public this wouldn’t happen. (more…)