Predictions: Who Will Win, Who Should Win, & Oscar Baiting

It’s that time of the year again — Oscar time!  (Cue “Hooray It’s Hollywood!” music.)  I know it’s supposed to be uncool to care, but I grew up watching the Oscars with my mom every year, and just can’t kick the habit.

Like some grim tribal ritual whose original meaning is lost in the mists of time, I will most probably sit down in front of the tube at the appointed hour, and brace myself for the onslaught of awkward acceptance speeches, corny jokes, and interminable dance numbers (please, God, no dance numbers!).

The experts agree there are two main contenders for Best Picture.  (What would we do without experts?)  One is a movie about a peaceful, idyllic land invaded by an evil military force trying to steal their resources.  The other one is called Avatar.

The struggle between Avatar and The Hurt Locker has gone back and forth.  Avatar was an early favorite, but Hurt Locker seems to have enjoyed a late General Petraeus-like surge.

Then in the final days, an ugly controversy struck Hurt Locker as one of its producers had the gall to ask people to vote for his movie.  Imagine that!  Doesn’t he know that Hollywood is a respectable place where aggressive self-promotion and crass commercialism are strictly off-limits?

Incidentally, have you noticed there are virtually no children in the world of Avatar?  It’s kind of like Beverly Hills.  Apparently there is a unique species on Pandora that takes care of the Na’vi children so the adults can spend all their time riding air-dragons and chasing blue tail.  This child-caring species is known as the Nan’ni.

Picking Oscar winners is one way to make the ceremonies tolerable.  (Another is drinking heavily.)  Not to brag or anything, but I almost always win my Oscar party pools.  For some inexplicable reason, I don’t get invited to Oscar parties anymore.

Since nobody else here at Big Hollywood has taken up the baton, to me is left the thankless task of making Oscar predictions.  Adopt them at your own risk.  (My lawyer made me add that.)

Best Picture

Probable winner:  toss-up between Avatar and The Hurt Locker

Should win:  toss-up between Up and Inglourious Basterds [sic]

Notes:  This year ten films are nominated for Best Picture, and a new European-style runoff voting system is being implemented.  Some say Inglourious Basterds is a dark-horse contender (gloury hallelujah).  But it’s anybody’s guess which will win.  If I had to choose, I’d say Hurt Locker is a lock.  Or Avatar.

Best Director

Probable winner:  Kathryn Bigelow

Should win:  Quentin Tarantino

Notes:  Tarantino is the most consistently compelling director working today.  His films are must-sees by any cinephile.  But Bigelow will be rewarded for making the first Iraq War movie whose total box office exceeded the sticker price of a Buick.

Best Actress

Probable winner:  Sandra Bullock

Should win:  Sandra Bullock

Notes:  If Bullock doesn’t win, the entire Bible Belt will unfasten itself and horsewhip Hollywood.  It might be worth it just to see Ari Emanuel try to hug it out with Baltimore Ravens tackle Michael Oher.

Best Actor

Probable winner:  Jeff Bridges

Should win:  Jeff Bridges

Notes:  Long overdue.  One word (plus a definite article):  “The Dude.”

Best Supporting Actress

Probable winner:  Mo’Nique

Should win:  See above

Notes:  Having a name punctuated like the Na’vi doesn’t hurt.

Best Supporting Actor

Probable winner:  Christoph Waltz

Should win:  See above

Notes:  Christopher Plummer is a sentimental dark-horse candidate.  Can you believe it’s Plummer’s first-ever nomination?  Unfortunately for him, the winner will have one less syllable in his first name.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Probable winner:  Up in the Air

Should win:  In the Loop

Notes:  In the Loop is the best comedy of 2009, a political (and really NSFW) movie that even a right-winger could love.  It deserves its very own post on BH.  Maybe I’ll do one later, if the clamor is loud enough.

Best Original Screenplay

Probable winner:  toss-up between The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds (probably Hurt Locker; I just can’t bring myself to acknowledge that)

Should win:  toss-up between Inglourious Basterds and Up

Notes:  Many moons ago, I was the first person (other than Quentin) to clap eyes on Tarantino’s script for Pulp Fiction.  He wouldn’t let me read it, but I saw the storied stack of paper on his coffee table.  Buy me a beer and I’ll tell you the whole story.

Best Animated Feature

Probable winner:  Up

Should win:  See above

Notes:  I haven’t seen The Book of Kells, which hasn’t been released in the U.S. yet.  It looks amazing, however.

Best Cinematography

Probable winner:  The Hurt Locker

Should win:  Inglourious Basterds

Notes:  Are we sick of the faux-documentary style yet?

Best Editing

Probable winner:  The Hurt Locker

Should win:  District 9

Notes:  I’d pick Inglourious Basterds here, but it should have been shortened by about 15 minutes (like virtually every Tarantino film since Pulp Fiction).

Best Art Direction

Probable winner:  Avatar

Should win:  Avatar

Notes:  Some would say the eye candy was the only good thing about Avatar.  Some would be right.

Best Original Score

Probable winner:  Up

Should win:  Up

Notes:  Up’s composer, Michael Giacchino, also scores Lost.  That’s enough  for him to win my vote, right there.  (Even though the temple thing is really bugging me this season — but that isn’t his fault.)

Best Foreign Language Film

Probable winner:  The White Ribbon

Should win:  I don’t know, didn’t see enough of them to say.  (Whew, that felt good to get off my chest!)

Notes:  The White Ribbon is in black and white.  It should be a lock.

Best Documentary Feature

Probable winner:  Since I’ve got a documentary coming out this year, I’m going to steer well clear of this one.  (Psst, The Cove will win.)

For those of you wagering on the outcomes, here are my predictions for the rest of the categories.  Just so you know which ones to avoid.

Costumes: The Young Victoria

Makeup:  Star Trek

Visual Effects:  Avatar

Sound Mixing:  Avatar

Sound Editing:  The Hurt Locker

Song:  The Weary Kind (Crazy Heart)

Animated Short:  A Matter of Loaf and Death

Documentary Short:  The Last Truck:  Closing of a GM Plant

Live Action Short:  The Door

So, who do you think will win?